When betting totals in baseball, the most important thing to remember is that you’re not betting on how good a team’s offense is. You’re betting on whether or not they make it to the number that the sportsbooks have set – a very different thing. Therefore, my MLB best bets are not based on whether an offense is good but whether it’s perceived to be good.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a great example. With 31 home runs, the Blue Jays have the second-most dingers in the Majors, behind only the Yankees. They hit .242 as a team, good for seventh in MLB.
Based on those numbers, the average person would say the Jays have a good to great offense. And the sportsbooks know that and keep pricing the Blue Jays’ totals well above where they should be. As a result, the Jays are 8-16 to the over this season.
Conversely, the Cincinnati Reds rank 29th in runs per game, yet have played to the over 12 times in 22 games, mainly because they can’t stop anyone from scoring. When you’re betting a total, you need to be sure you know the teams well.
With that in mind, here are the odds and lines for May 2.
MLB Odds, Schedule, and Probable Pitchers
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Run Line: ATL: +1.5 (-200) | NYM: -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline: ATL: +100 | NYM: -120
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Braves vs. Mets Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. Carlos Carrasco (NYM)
Braves vs. Mets Game Time: 3:10 p.m. EST
Braves vs. Mets Location: Citi Field, New York
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Run Line: SD: -1.5 (+115) | CLE: +1.5 (-140)
Moneyline: SD: -145 | CLE: +120
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Padres vs. Guardians Starting Pitchers: Mike Clevinger (SD) vs. Zach Plesac (CLE)
Padres vs. Guardians Game Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
Padres vs. Guardians Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Run Line: ARI: +1.5 (-140) | MIA: -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline: ARI: +150 | MIA: -185
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Starting Pitchers: Undecided (ARI) vs. Trevor Rogers (MIA)
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Run Line: ATL: -1.5 (+135) | NYM: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: ATL: -125 | NYM: +105
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Braves vs. Mets Starting Pitchers: Kyle Wright (ATL) vs. Undecided (NYM)
Braves vs. Mets Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Braves vs. Mets Location: Citi Field, New York
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Run Line: TEX: +1.5 (-135) | PHI: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: TEX: +145 | PHI: -175
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Rangers vs. Phillies Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray (TEX) vs. Ranger Suarez (PHI)
Rangers vs. Phillies Game Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
Rangers vs. Phillies Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Run Line: MIN: -1.5 (+105) | BAL: +1.5 (-125)
Moneyline: MIN: -175 | BAL: +145
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Twins vs. Orioles Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. Bruce Zimmermann (BAL)
Twins vs. Orioles Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Twins vs. Orioles Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line: NYY: +1.5 (-185) | TOR: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: NYY: +110 | TOR: -130
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (NYY) vs. Alek Manoah (TOR)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game Time: 7:07 p.m. EST
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Run Line: LAA: -1.5 (+125) | BOS: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: LAA: -125 | BOS: +105
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Angels vs. Red Sox Starting Pitchers: Noah Syndergaard (LAA) vs. Michael Wacha (BOS)
Angels vs. Red Sox Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Angels vs. Red Sox Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Run Line: PIT: +1.5 (-160) | DET: -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline: PIT: +125 | DET: -150
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Pirates vs. Tigers Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson (PIT) vs. Michael Pineda (DET)
Pirates vs. Tigers Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Pirates vs. Tigers Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Run Line: CHW: -1.5 (+125) | CHC: +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline: CHW: -145 | CHC: +120
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
White Sox vs. Cubs Starting Pitchers: Michael Kopech (CHW) vs. Drew Smyly (CHC)
White Sox vs. Cubs Game Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
White Sox vs. Cubs Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Run Line: CIN: +1.5 (-115) | MIL: -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: CIN: +200 | MIL: -250
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Reds vs. Brewers Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle (CIN) vs. Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
Reds vs. Brewers Game Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Reds vs. Brewers Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Run Line: SEA: +1.5 (-145) | HOU: -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline: SEA: +135 | HOU: -165
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Mariners vs. Astros Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen (SEA) vs. Cristian Javier (HOU)
Mariners vs. Astros Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Mariners vs. Astros Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Run Line: STL: -1.5 (+145) | KC: +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline: STL: -120 | KC: +100
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Royals Starting Pitchers: Dakota Hudson (STL) vs. Brad Keller (KC)
Cardinals vs. Royals Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Cardinals vs. Royals Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Run Line: WAS: +1.5 (-135) | COL: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: WAS: +135 | COL: -160
Over/Under: 10.5 (-110)
Nationals vs. Rockies Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde (WSH) vs. German Marquez (COL)
Nationals vs. Rockies Game Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
Nationals vs. Rockies Location: Coors Field, Denver
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Run Line: TB: -1.5 (+135) | OAK: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: TB: -135 | OAK: +110
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Rays vs. Athletics Starting Pitchers: Ryan Yarbrough (TB) vs. Paul Blackburn (OAK)
Rays vs. Athletics Game Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Rays vs. Athletics Location: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Run Line: SF: +1.5 (-185) | LAD: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: SF: +120 | LAD: -145
Over/Under: 7 (-110)
Giants vs. Dodgers Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (SF) vs. Julio Urias (LAD)
Giants vs. Dodgers Game Time: 10:10 p.m. EST
Giants vs. Dodgers Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
We’ve got above a full slate today with the Mets and Braves playing a doubleheader, so there’s plenty of action available. Here are my best bets for May 3.
MLB Best Bet May 3: Minnesota Twins ML (-175) vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
The Orioles continue to struggle to put up much offense, and I think that means good things for Joe Ryan on the mound. Ryan gave up two runs in his first appearance of the season against Tampa Bay, but has conceded just one earned run since then and shut out his past two opponents.
Plus, the Twins proved a solid play for me on Monday against the Orioles, and I think they can keep things rolling here, especially with Baltimore having scored two runs or less in four of its past six games.
MLB Best Bet May 3: Pittsburgh Pirates-Detroit Tigers, Under 8.5 Runs (-110), 7:05 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
Pittsburgh isn’t a team that most people think of when they’re thinking unders. But, the Pirates are one of those teams that come in under the total more often than people think because they can’t hit all that well. For example, the current Pirates roster has only scored 82 runs on the season, an average of 3.63 runs per game.
The Tigers have been even worse on offense, scoring a mere 67 runs for the entire season. That’s worse than everyone except Cincinnati and Kansas City, neither of whom are known for their offensive prowess. I mentioned at the start of the piece that the Blue Jays have 31 home runs by themselves, and these teams are at the opposite end of the spectrum: together, they’ve hit just 23 balls out of the park.
MLB Best Bet May 3: Colorado Rockies ML (-150) vs. Washington Nationals, 8:40 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
Whenever you can get the Rockies for a decent price at home, you need to jump on that one. Colorado has been one of the best home bets in baseball for the past year-plus, as the Rockies went 48-33 at home a season ago and are coming off a home sweep of the Reds.
Washington did show signs of life against the Giants last week in putting up double figures in two out of three games, but considering that the Nationals have struggled to score for most of the year, I think that’s unlikely to replicate itself, even in Denver’s thin air. The Rockies are playing very well to start the season, and I think that they can keep that going against a fairly weak opponent.
