In the latest installment of the AL Central rivalry, the Royals and Twins meet in Minnesota. As his 4th career start, rookie Kris Bubic will toe the rubber for KC. Meanwhile, the Twins are opting for a bullpen game, starting with ‘opener’ Matt Wisler.
Total: 9.5 | Over: -103 | Under: -120 KCR| Moneyline: +135 | Run Line (+1.5): -141 MIN | Moneyline: -165 | Run Line (-1.5): +120
A Southpaw Edge?
Target Field is largely known for being a neutral park, but it’s not necessarily balanced. According to RotoGrinders, the ballpark increases left-handed batter production by 4% but decreases righty production by 2%. Surprisingly enough, this effect is mainly due to triples (which drop from a factor of 144% for LHB to 86% for RHB). It’s not a huge edge, but against such a great lineup, Kris Bubic will need all the help he can get.
MIN -1 (-128)
Kris Bubic may impress us with a good performance today against the Twins. Unfortunately for him, however, the rest of his teammates likely won’t keep pace. Even without 3B Josh Donaldson, the Twins remain a force to be reckoned with, left-handed opponent or not. With a -1 spread, the Twins just have to win for this to cash. Considering that the Twins are -165 favorites, the -1 spread is a nice arbitrage play.
Looking for more expert picks from Rich? Check out all his latest MLB picks and parlays for today’s games here.
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