Monday’s 11-game slate kicks off an incredible week of NBA action. The national-TV doubleheader will be handled by NBA TV, who is featuring the Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers.
I didn’t make any picks over the weekend, but Friday’s 2-1 tally brought my season-long record to 67-42-2 ATS (61.5%). On Friday, there were two major injuries that affected games I wrote about- those picks were void.
Table of contents
- Indiana Pacers (-5) at Washington Wizards – Total: 233
- Miami Heat (-4) at New York Knicks – Total: 207
- Memphis Grizzlies (-7) at Houston Rockets – Total: 223.5
- Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) – Total: 232
Indiana Pacers (-5) at Washington Wizards – Total: 233
IND: 2 days rest
WSH: normal rest, front-end b2b (vs CHA tomorrow)
Apparently, the Wizards just don’t like playing the New York. That’s who Washington’s last three losses have come against (one against Nets, two against Knicks), and luckily it has the boys from Indiana coming in tonight.
The Pacers are actually the NBA’s third-worst ATS team in the league, only covering 41% of their games. Although Indy had two full days of rest coming into the game, that extended rest has been more of a detriment this season. In fact, the Pacers are 2-6 ATS when playing on two or more days of rest. Washington, on the other hand, thrives on playing these games in a short span of time; the Wizards are 9-4 ATS when playing with the rest disadvantage.
Betting Pick: Wizards (+5)
Miami Heat (-4) at New York Knicks – Total: 207
MIA: 2 days rest
NYK: normal rest
The Heat have dominated this matchup in recent history, going 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS against the Knicks in the last seven meetings. In my opinion, the spread is quite telling, as the Knicks have consistently been a small favorite in recent home games. To see the Heat, the NBA’s second-worst ATS team, favored by four at MSG gives me all the info I need to know.
Betting Pick: Heat (-4)
Memphis Grizzlies (-7) at Houston Rockets – Total: 223.5
MEM: 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6
HOU: 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6
As the only total play of the night, I’ll be taking the under in this Grizzlies – Rockets matchup. And there’s plenty of trends pointing to this being the winning side. Not to mention, both teams are playing the same long stretch of three games in four days, and four in six.
For starters, four of the last five meetings between the teams have gone under the total. Also, as one of the most telling trends in all of basketball is games in Houston going under the total at a rapid rate. Of the 22 games played in H-Town this season, 76% of them have gone under the total.
Betting Pick: Under 223.5 points
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) – Total: 232
MIL: 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6
LAC: 4 games in 6 days, front-end b2b (vs ORL tomorrow)
The Clippers have lost four straight meetings with the Bucks, but I believe tonight will end that string of heartache. LA has now won five straight, and six of the last seven; its current form heading into tonight is much better than that of the opponents, who have lost two straight.
It’s interesting to note the cross-conference play for both teams here, considering the numbers are very different. The Clippers have a strong 12-8 ATS mark against the Eastern Conference while the Bucks are only 7-11 ATS against the West. In addition, there’s a stark difference between LA’s 13-9 ATS mark at home and Milwaukee’s 7-13 ATS position on the road.
Betting Pick: Clippers (-2.5)
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