Despite all of the Cinderalla stories (shout out to Saint Peter’s on their miracle run to the Elite Eight), both Final Four matchups feature blue blood programs. The only No. 1 seed to make it through to the national semifinal is the Kansas Jayhawks. but two No. 2 seeds in Villanova and Duke to go along with No. 8 seed North Carolina leaves bettors with two games with 4.5 point spreads.
The Jayhawks are favored over the Wildcats in the first national semifinal on Saturday, but if you’d prefer to bet on something other than the spread or total when Kansas takes on Villanova, player props are a great way to get in on the action.
Here are my three best bets for Kansas Jayhawks player props vs. Villanova in the Final Four on Saturday.
Kansas Jayhawks Player Props vs. Villanova in NCAA Tournament March Madness Final Four
Jalen Wilson Prop Bet: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135)
Someone will need to grab rebounds for Kansas, and Jalen Wilson is likely to be that someone. Wilson and David McCormack have a height advantage over Villanova’s guard-heavy lineup, but I favor Wilson here because he plays a lot more minutes than McCormack does. Truth is, if you can bet this up to 8.5 rebounds for better odds, I’d do it.
In Kansas’ past six games, Wilson played 30 or more minutes in all but one, the first-round blowout of Texas Southern. Of note, that was the only game in which McCormack played more than 25 minutes. Throw in that Wilson has topped 10 boards in three straight games, and it’s clear he’s the Kansas rebounder to back.
Jalen Wilson Best Bet: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135), available on PointsBet
Ochai Agbaji Prop Bet: Under 1.5 3-Pointers (+140)
This one might seem a bit odd, given that Ochai Agbaji is Kansas’ leading scorer. But in NCAA Tournament play, he isn’t taking that many 3-point attempts, and when he does shoot from deep, he hasn’t been hitting. Agbaji has only sunk 4-of-14 from behind the arc during March Madness, and two of those were his only two attempts against Miami in the Elite Eight.
Villanova’s defense is designed to take away the thing teams most love to do, and that means the Wildcats will likely pay special attention to Agbaji. This might have been a great play in the regular season, when he was taking more than six 3-pointers per game, but Agbaji isn’t looking for his shot from deep in the tournament. Through four games, 34 of his 48 attempts have come from inside the 3-point line, meaning you’re only likely to get three or four chances to hit two 3-pointers. Paying the -185 juice on the over and Agbaji shooting 50 percent or better from 3-point range against Villanova’s defense just isn’t good value here. Take the under and the plus money on this prop bet.
Ochai Agbaji Best Bet: Under 1.5 3-Pointers (+140), available on PointsBet
Remy Martin Prop Bet: Over 11.5 Points (-120)
Kansas head coach Bill Self’s trust in Remy Martin seems to have grown during the NCAA Tournament, and with Villanova likely to focus on Agbaji, Martin will have to step up if the Jayhawks are to advance to the National Championship game.
During Kansas’ March Madness run, Martin has played at least 20 minutes and he’s topped this over/under total in three of the four games, with the lone exception coming against Miami in the Elite Eight. To put this in perspective, the guard scored 15, 20, 23, and then nine points in the four contests.
Martin is now clearly a key part of Kansas’ offensive attack and given that Villanova lost one of its rotation players in Justin Moore to an Achilles tear, the Jayhawks could go guard heavy to wear out the Villanova backcourt. That could mean even more minutes for Martin and more opportunities for him to get over this modest point total.
Remy Martin Best Bet: Over 11.5 Points (-120), available on PointsBet
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