If you’re looking for a well-played basketball game, this won’t be anywhere close to that. These are two weak teams that are going nowhere, and the season will come to a merciful end after this game for one of them.
The difference is, Georgia Tech is still playing with some enthusiasm, as the Yellow Jackets have been competitive in most of the games they’ve played. They haven’t been winning, going just 2-4 SU in their past six games, but they have gone 5-1 ATS in that stretch and three of their four defeats were by four points or less.
Louisville, on the other hand, hasn’t been close to competitive in its past three games. The Cardinals haven’t looked the same since mid-January, and firing coach Chris Mack only seems to have exacerbated their desire to just get the season over with. Of their past three games, Louisville has lost by an average of 21.3 points and seems to have lost the desire to play without being in front of their fans. In a nearly-empty arena in New York, this could be a problem.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Louisville Cardinals Odds, Trends, and Picks
Opening Betting Odds and Lines
|(12-19 SU, 12-16-2 ATS)||Form||(12-18 SU, 9-20-1 ATS)|
When: 7 pm, Tuesday, March 8
Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Betting the Total
These are not good offensive teams. Both teams shoot under 45 percent from the field, and both teams average fewer than 70 points per game. Georgia Tech hasn’t broken 70 without going to overtime since Jan. 26 against Florida State, a streak of 12 straight games. If the Yellow Jackets are the team that’s playing with enthusiasm and they’re not expected to break 70, it seems pretty unlikely that the Cardinals will do so either.
These numbers suggest these teams getting to around 67 points apiece, which seems like a tall order for these teams given how they’ve been scoring the ball. Louisville has failed to top 63 in five of its past seven games, and I think the Cardinals will again struggle to score.
I recommend backing Under 135 points.
Backing the Spread
Whenever you can get points with the team that has a stronger desire to win, it’s usually a good idea to take those points. Georgia Tech has come close time and time again against better teams than Louisville, and the Cardinals have shown absolutely no inclination to want to stick around in the ACC tournament for a second longer than necessary.
The reality is that Louisville has looked like it’s checked out for the past six weeks, and I don’t expect them to turn it on at this point and try to make a run to the ACC title. I expect this will be a situation where the breaks finally go Georgia Tech’s way, and the Yellow Jackets come out with a strong performance.
I think you could probably take the Yellow Jackets on the moneyline and come out with a win. But there’s no need to turn down a free basket, so I recommend playing Georgia Tech +1.5.