Kansas State might very well be sunk as far as making the postseason in 2022, and that means coach Bruce Weber might be sunk as far as keeping his job past 2022. The Wildcats needed to pick up some quality wins and have had plenty of chances to do it, but fell by three to Oklahoma State and one to Iowa State, dropping their record to 14-14 with two games left in the regular season. At that mark, not only is the NCAA tournament a long shot, but the Wildcats might become ineligible for the NIT, which would make it virtually impossible to keep Weber employed.
Texas Tech’s got the opposite situation: the Red Raiders are trying to position themselves to earn as high a seed as possible for the NCAA tournament. They missed a chance to do so over the weekend against TCU, but they’ve gone a perfect 17-0 in Lubbock and can clinch an unbeaten home schedule in this matchup. There’s also a revenge factor working in the Red Raiders’ favor: their trip to Manhattan on Jan. 15 was easily their worst loss of the season, and now they’ve got a chance to all but end K-State’s season, which should have Texas Tech taking this game very seriously.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Analysis
Opening Betting Odds and Lines
|Kansas State Wildcats||vs.||Texas Tech Red Raiders|
|(14-14 SU, 14-12-2 ATS)||Form||(22-7 SU, 20-9 ATS)|
When: 9 p.m., Monday, February 28th
Where: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
Betting the Total
These teams like a slow, defensive game when all goes according to plan. However, things haven’t really gone according to plan for Kansas State as of late. The Wildcats haven’t really been stopping anyone as of late, as five of their past six opponents have gotten to 73 points or more. Although Texas Tech is defense-first, the Red Raiders don’t hesitate to put up quality numbers on offense against lesser defensive sides, and they’ve proven quite efficient when they get inside of 20 feet and take the mid-range jumpers and layups.
That flies in the face of Kansas State’s defensive strength, as the Wildcats are much more comfortable defending the 3-point arc than they are with their interior defense. K-State ranks 18th in the nation on perimeter defense, but just 152nd when it comes to overall field goal percentage. Even the perimeter defense hasn’t worked lately, as Kansas just blistered K-State for 62.5% from the floor the last time the Wildcats went on the road.
I recommend backing the Texas Tech team total Over 73.
Backing the Spread
It’s hard to see this going well for K-State at this point. The Wildcats have everything to play for, but they’re facing a motivated and talented opponent that has an average margin of victory of 14 points in home conference games. Only Kansas was able to stay within 10 points of Texas Tech in Lubbock, and the Jayhawks are considered one of the 10 best teams in the nation.
Kansas State isn’t anywhere close to that, and the Wildcats’ defense has been showing signs of fissures over the past two weeks. The Wildcats need this game to save Weber’s job, but I just can’t see it happening.
I think Texas Tech will do to Kansas State what it’s done to everyone in Lubbock all year long, and my recommended play is Texas Tech -12.5.