In this article, we’ll provide you our top college football betting picks for Week 12. These matchups include the Navy Midshipmen at Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers, Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes & Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears. We’ll study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
4 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) at #12 Auburn Tigers – O/U: 41
Saturday, November 16, 2019 – 3:30 p.m. EST
It’s another marquee SEC showdown as the Georgia Bulldogs travel to face the Auburn Tigers. Georgia has won each of the last two matchups and 11 of the last 14. These games are typically low scoring, and that’s why our top betting pick is for the total to go under 41 points. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
Georgia is getting about two-thirds of the bets from the public from 2.5-point spread. That makes plenty of sense, considering they’re the higher-ranked teams and a trip to the SEC Championship is on the line. As for the total, we’re seeing a little more than 60% of public bets and all money wagered going toward the under.
When the most recent College Football Playoff rankings were released this week, many were surprised to see Georgia in the No. 4 spot. Most thought Alabama would be there but fans of theirs should know that things could work themselves out down the road. Nonetheless, a Georgia win on Saturday will send them to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
In this matchup, defense will dictate the day. The Bulldogs are allowing the second-fewest points per game (10.1) in the nation this season. Depth and versatility are some of the finer qualities of this defense, especially up front. Georgia is able to rotate numerous defensive linemen and there’s no shortage of talent with any of these guys. This is a unit that has not yielded more than 20 points in any game this season.
As for the offense, Georgia’s running attack is what makes this operation so dynamic. They have a great wealth of depth at running back with three players averaging at least five yards per carry. This is all highlighted by D’Andre Swift, who has 921 yards on the ground with an average of 6.3 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. Running the ball should be able to keep the clock moving swiftly.
QB Jake Fromm was touted as one of the best signal-callers heading into the season. He has hardly been impressive but Georgia knows that running the ball is its bread and butter. Don’t expect this game to turn into a shootout at any point.
Auburn has the second-best rushing attack in the SEC, with 219.3 yards per game. However, it’s going to be awfully tough to move the ball against a stout defensive front like the one Georgia has. Not to mention, Georgia is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (74.6) in the nation. Auburn has only scored 20 points in each of its last two games, so generating a big game on the ground will come even harder than usual.
As we mentioned, defense will be the name of the game on Saturday. The Tigers have one of the better defenses, allowing only 17.4 points per game – 13th fewest in the nation. Stopping the Bulldogs’ rushing attack is necessary in order to win this game. Auburn is allowing only 112.7 yards per game on the ground, so it should be quite the battle in the trenches.
Freshman QB Bo Nix is coming off a great game but this Georgia defense is nothing like the Ole Miss one he faced two weeks ago. Granted, Auburn is coming off a bye, but it’ll be incredibly difficult to move the ball in any event.
Defense, defense, defense – we’re going to see plenty of it in this one. In fact, five of the last six meetings between Auburn and Georgia have only seen a total of 41 points or fewer scored. Don’t expect anything to be different this time around with two of the best defenses in the nation on display.
8 Minnesota Golden Gophers at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3) – O/U: 44.5
Saturday, November 16, 2019 – 4:00 p.m. EST
The Minnesota Golden Gophers will continue their undefeated season when they travel to face the Iowa Hawkeyes. Minnesota needs a lot of help in order to get itself in the College Football Playoff but a win against Iowa would certainly make its case a lot stronger. Nonetheless, we’re going the opposite direction and our top betting pick will be Iowa covering the three-point spread. Let’s look at some more numbers to support our pick.
While the public bets are right around 50/50, all money wagered is in favor of Iowa at about 60%. It is somewhat surprising to see Iowa not getting more backing. Although, it seems like Minnesota is being taken a bit more seriously after last week’s win against Penn State. We’re not buying Minnesota this week since this will be their second high-profile game in as many weeks.
Minnesota is ranked the highest its ever been since 1962. However, that run of success is going to end of Saturday. The Golden Gophers high-flying aerial attack has been a big reason for their success, and they’ll need every bit of it in order to beat a tough team on the road. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 points and 432.9 yards per game.
QB Tanner Morgan has the third highest yards per attempt and fourth highest passing efficiency in all of college football. But he’s going to be greeted by a rawkus Iowa crowd that will certainly make life difficult for him. Iowa’s secondary and pass rush haven’t exactly been flawless, but the home crowd will certainly give them a boost in that regard.
We’re not the biggest fans of Iowa when it comes to games against the perennial powers in college football. However, despite its undefeated record, Minnesota is not one of the elite programs in the country. Not to mention, Iowa’s three losses have all come by seven points or less.
Iowa needs to run the ball and control the clock in order to be successful in this one. Given the low 44.5-point total in this game, we should probably expect this to happen. The Iowa defense ranks in the Top-20 against the run, pass, points allowed and total defense. This is going to be a good ole fashioned Big Ten battle that’ll likely be one in the trenches. Based on that, Iowa is the better play here.
Iowa has dominated this matchup against Minnesota in recent memory, winning each of the last four meetings and six of the last seven. In fact, all six of those wins came by at least five points. Look for Iowa to feed off the home crowd and hand Minnesota its first loss of the season.
10 Oklahoma Sooners (-10) at #13 Baylor Bears – O/U: 67.5
Saturday, November 16, 2019 – 7:30 p.m. EST
The Big 12 Conference is up for grabs when the Oklahoma Sooners travel to take on the Baylor Bears. While this game means a lot for both sides, we do expect a lot of points to be scored. That’s why our top betting pick is for the total to go over 67.5 points. Let’s dive into some more numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
The market is right around 50/50 on which side they’ll favor in this game, both in public bets and all money wagered. However, there’s a much clearer side on the total, with almost all of the money moving toward the over. That makes plenty of sense, considering the Big 12 (and these two teams) aren’t exactly known for their defenses.
This is a familiar position for Oklahoma, being close to the top of the Big 12. A win against a Baylor would put them right in the driver’s seat to win the conference yet again, and possibly move a step closer to getting back in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Oklahoma has been blessed with some talented QBs over the years and it got another one in Jalen Hurts. The transfer from Alabama has the highest passer efficiency rating in all of college football this season and a total of 2,742yard and 24 TD-4 INT throwing the football. In addition, Hurts is leading the Sooners in rushing yards with 869 and a whopping 15 TDs. Everyone say a prayer for the Baylor defense because they’re going to need it on Saturday night.
As a team, the Sooners are averaging an astounding 48.4 points per game – best in the nation. On the flip side, the Bears are only allowing 19 points per game – that total is about to go up.
Baylor is still one of five remaining undefeated teams in the country and it’d be quite the surprise if it ended up taking the Big 12 title. While the unblemished mark is nice, it’s not as impressive since they haven’t defeated one ranked team yet this season. However, that’ll change on Saturday with this matchup against Oklahoma and then a meeting with #19 Texas the following week.
On offense, the Bears don’t score nearly as much as the Sooners. Sure, playing keep away from Hurts & Co. could prove to be effective, but only for so long. Eventually, this offense will need to ratchet up the intensity put themselves into overdrive. Luckily, Baylor has a solid QB in Charlie Brewer that can make things difficult on this Oklahoma defense.
We all know what happens in Big 12 football, especially when Oklahoma takes the field – points, points, and some more points. While Baylor hasn’t necessarily lit up the scoreboard, it’ll certainly need to in order to keep up with the powerful Oklahoma attack. In our opinion, the game will be right in that 10-point range with the sides going back and forth. Each of the last four meetings in this series had at least 69 points scored.