In this article, we’ll provide you our top college football betting picks for Week 14. These matchups include the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines, Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers and Army Black Knights at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
We’ll study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5) at #13 Michigan Wolverines – O/U: 50
Saturday, November 30, 2019 – 12:00 p.m. EST
NCAAF Week 14 Pick: Under 50
The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to take on the rival Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Ohio State looks to continue its undefeated season, staying atop the College Football Playoff standings. Our top betting pick is for the total to go under 50 points. Let’s take a look at the facts and see why we’re playing the total on this game.
NCAAF Week 14 Betting Lines Analysis: Ohio State at Michigan
Ohio State is getting nearly three-fourths of the public bets and all money wagered. It makes plenty of sense, considering Ohio State’s recent history of success in this matchup. As for the total, about 70 percent of public bets and all money wagered on the over. It’s good news with the total going from 52 to 50, even with the money going the opposite direction.
Ohio State Form
Ohio State has won each game this season by double-digits, but this matchup could prove to be a lot different. Head coach Ryan Day leads the Buckeyes into this rivalry for the first time. Perhaps, we could see him finally have his worst game of the season. Nonetheless, it’s time for Ohio State to finally have a competitive matchup.
QB Justin Fields has only thrown one interception against 33 touchdowns this season. The conditions could make it tough to continue that success. Not only will the weather be there, but that large Michigan crowd gets quite rowdy in these big games.
Ohio State’s defense is just much different when DE Chase Young is lining up. He missed two games prior to last week and the defense allowed more than 10 points in those games for the first time since Aug. 31. Granted, Ohio State did allow 17 points against Penn State last week, but some of that came from unfavorable field position created by the offense. Look for them to get back on track and keep things to a minimum on Saturday. After all, the Buckeyes are allowing the fewest total yards per game (217) this season.
Jim Harbaugh lost his first four meetings against Ohio State. But you have to believe that bad luck will turn around at some point. Again, our main play is on the total in this game. However, we do think Michigan can grind it out on the ground. If they do that, they keep Ohio State’s offense off the field.
We mentioned Michigan’s massive crowd playing a big factor in this one. In fact, the Wolverines’ defense has allowed a total of 27 points. Those last three games came against Michigan State, Notre Dame and Iowa. While Ohio State’s offense is much better than any of those teams, Michigan’s defense shows a true advantage at home.
In order to truly keep this game competitive, and low-scoring, stopping Ohio State’s rushing attack is essential. Since the weather won’t be great, looking for them to establish that method on offense. Michigan’s defense improved from the beginning of the season. This will be a great chance to show exactly how.
NCAAF Week 14 Pick: Under 50
Ohio State games don’t typically have low 50-point totals attached to them like this. In fact, the Buckeyes had four games this season where the total was 52.5. Three of them went under the total – the only over hit by a mere five points. The low total is quite telling and the early weather reports have a rain/snow mix hitting the Ann Arbor area on Saturday.
The Iron Bowl has typically been a final regular-season showcase for one of these teams before heading to the SEC Championship. Although, this year neither team is going, The Alabama Crimson Tide could still get into the College Football Playoff with a win over the Auburn Tigers. Our top betting pick is for Alabama to cover the 3.5-point spread in Week 14 and keep those dreams alive. Let’s look at some numbers to see why we’re rolling with the road favorites.
NCAAF Week 14 Betting Lines Analysis: Alabama at Auburn
It’s not particularly surprising to see about three-fourths of public bets coming in on Alabama. However, it’s a lot more close to 50/50 where all money is wagered – slightly in favor of the Crimson Tide. Even though Alabama won’t have its regular starting QB in this high-profile matchup, it’s somewhat telling that who’s favored in this one.
As we mentioned, there will be no Tua Tagovailoa at QB – rather, it’ll be Mac Jones. In two starts thus far, Jones has tossed for 510 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
While the QB position is somewhat unknown at this point, Alabama will certainly be trying to run the ball. Auburn does have a good defensive line but hasn’t been great against the run when facing heavyweights like Florida, LSU and Georgia. RB Najee Harris has looked good in recent weeks and this should be another solid game for him.
This should be another inspired defensive performance against a young QB. Not having the best QB in the nation will likely do that.
Freshman QB Bo Nix has faced five ranked teams so far this season, posting a 2-3 record in those games – he’s 6-0 in the other games. This will be Nix’s first taste of the Iron Bowl, and he’s done a fine job even in losses. However, we’re looking at a Nick Saban-coached team that will be looking to put some pressure on the youngster.
We spoke briefly about the Auburn defensive front and how stopping the run will be crucial. Sure, they can do it, but we’ve seen them against some of the best teams in the country. Albeit, less-talented teams than Alabama.
NCAAF Week 14 Pick: Alabama (-3.5)
At the end of the day, Alabama absolutely needs this game to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race – and then get some help. Additionally, the Crimson Tide will need to really need to lay a beatdown on Auburn in order to make sure they can eventually fall into one of those final four spots. Look for Alabama to play a flawless game and cover this 3.5-point spread.
Army Black Knights at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-2.5) – O/U: 55
Saturday, November 30, 2019 – 11:59 p.m. EST
NCAAF Week 14 Pick: Army (+2.5)
The last game of the college football regular season kicks off deep into the night as the Army Black Knights make the long voyage to meet the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. While Hawaii has a much better record, there is absolutely nothing for this school to play for. That’s why our top betting pick is for Army to cover the 2.5-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re rolling with the road dog.
NCAAF Week 13 Betting Lines Analysis: Army at Hawaii
A lot of bettors out there are sniffing the BS on this line from a mile away. Over 80% of public bets and all money wagered are heading in Army’s direction, so it’s good to see agreement from all parties. Typically, we don’t love to see this much agreement from the public, but this is too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Before taking on Navy in the annual rivalry game, Army will have a bowl game of sorts. Well, that’s not true, but a trip out to Hawaii is pretty damn cool too. Not to mention, these Black Knights have traveled well in recent memory with a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine road games.
Army is actually playing some of its best football at the moment, with a combined advantage of 119-13 in the last two wins. Now, they’ll be taking on a Hawaii team that has played some incredibly tough games lately. That fatigue, and Hawaii’s perceived lack of enthusiasm for this game could make this a great opportunity for Army to do what it does best – run the football. The Rainbow Warriors already have one of the worst run defenses in college football, allowing just under 200 yards per game.
Hawaii already has its ticket stamped to Mountain West Conference Championship Game against Boise State. While it’ll be Senior Night on Saturday, we can probably expect the Rainbow Warriors to rest some of their key players in a meaningless game. The triple-option system offensive scheme run by the Black Knights can be physically grueling on opposing teams’ defenses, so that is the one angle to look at more than any other.
As we mentioned in the Army blurb, this is not a good run-defense that Hawaii has. There are already numerous holes in this defense and we’ll likely see a lot of their second-stringers as it is. Also, we already saw Air Force running a similar system and dominating on the ground against Army a few weeks ago.
NCAAF Week 14 Pick: Army (+2.5)
These are some absolutely awkward circumstances to deal with. However, we’re really looking forward to taking advantage of them and winning this Army bet. There’s a longshot that Army could get itself into a bowl game at the end of the season with wins in each of the last two games. While Hawaii is probably the better team here, we’ve laid out the groundwork of why this could be a different scenario for the day.
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