In this article, we’ll provide you with our top NCAAF Week 7 betting picks. There are three great matchups between the #6 Oklahoma Sooners at #11 Texas Longhorns, 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) at #24 Texas A&M Aggies and 7 Florida Gators at #5 LSU Tigers. We study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
#6 Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5) at #11 Texas Longhorns – O/U: 75.5
Saturday, October 12, 2019 – 12:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Over 75.5
The Red River Showdown makes its annual trip to the State Fair of Texas, as we’ll see the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns. In each of the last five meetings, the game has been decided by seven points or less, with Oklahoma winning three of them. Our top betting pick is for total to go over the total so let’s dig into the numbers a bit more to see why we’re taking the underdog.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Oklahoma at Texas
The line opened with Texas as a 12-point underdog but that line has dropped to 10.5. Public bettors have Texas backing, as 67 percent of those bets are going in that direction while 58 percent of all money wagered is too. Even though the initial 74.5-point total is massive, it increased a bit more to 75.5. Nonetheless, the people have spoken, with 64 percent of public bets/65 percent of all money wagered agreeing with us on the total going over.
Oklahoma Betting Form
Oklahoma has looked great to start the season, but it’s fair to question the strength-of-schedule attached to those wins. This will certainly be the toughest opponent the Sooners have faced thus far, but their 53.4 points-per-game average will play well against a Longhorns’ defense that is a little banged up.
QB Jalen Hurts will get his first taste of the storied rivalry, so it’ll be interesting to see how he holds up. Luckily for him, the Texas defense has already allowed three QBs to throw for at least 330 yards. Against these lesser opponents, Hurts is averaging 304.6 passing yards per game while tossing a total of 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Not to mention, Oklahoma ranks third in the country for rushing yards per game (283.5).
The Oklahoma defense has played well over the last four games. Only allowing 20 points or fewer – 16 points or fewer in the three games before that. Once again, a lot of that has to do with the competition, and we just have to take what we’ve seen so far with a grain of salt. Given what we’ve seen in years past, we should expect their defensive numbers to get a bit worse today.
Texas Betting Form
While Oklahoma has been cake walking through the early part of its schedule. Texas has not been so lucky, but it has been competitive. Texas had close battles with West Virginia and Oklahoma State in each of the last two weeks. Two weeks before that, the Longhorns nearly defeated LSU in what was a crazy game that came down to the end.
QB Sam Ehlinger is playing incredibly well to start the season, with an average of 289.6 passing yards per game and a total of 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. In last season’s game against Oklahoma, he was able to throw for 314 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 72 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground. Although the Texas rushing attack doesn’t have the gaudy ranking of its counterparts, 177.2 yards per game on the ground isn’t anything to sneeze at either.
As we mentioned, the Texas defense has some injuries that’ll certainly make it tough to stop an already-prolific Oklahoma offense. Granted, the Longhorns have one of the better secondaries in the country. However, we haven’t seen the proof in the pudding since they’re not generating any type of pass rush. We mentioned the numbers earlier about opposing QBs having success against Texas. So this should be another huge opportunity for Hurts and the Oklahoma offense.
Betting Pick: Over 75.5 (-110)
All in all, we’ve always seen this matchup produce plenty of points, and now Texas has a much better offense than in previous years. The Longhorns have scored at least 36 points in every game this season, and if their defense doesn’t produce a pass-rush, the Sooners will certainly contribute plenty to the total.
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#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) at #24 Texas A&M Aggies – O/U: 61
Saturday, October 12, 2019 – 3:30 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Texas A&M (+17)
We’ve got an interesting SEC battle on our hands in Week7. The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide travel into hostile territory to face the Texas A&M Aggies. A stat to note is Texas A&M is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games while Alabama has only gone 2-6 against the spread in its last eight. We’re taking notice of this and picking the Aggies to cover the spread in this game. Let’s take a look at the numbers to see why the underdog is the play here.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Alabama at Texas A&M
Texas A&M opened as a 17.5-point underdog (which would have been a more favorable number) but have since gone down slightly to +17. We’re seeing 74 percent of public bets/60 percent of all money wagered heading Alabama’s way, and it seems like one of those times where fading the public is a good thing. The total has remained at 61, and that’s interesting since most of the bets/money wagered is on the total going over.
Alabama Betting Form
The Crimson Tide hasn’t been tested much this season. However, this is a tough environment at Kyle Field for opposing teams. In fact, Alabama only has an 11-point average margin of victory in its last three trips to Texas A&M, with two of those three wins coming by eight points or less – the misnomer was an 18-point win in 2015.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has been great against subpar competition, averaging 343.6 passing yards per game with a total of 23 touchdowns and no interceptions. That first interception could finally come in this game, considering Texas A&M has a strong pass-rush that can get in Tagovailoa’s face a couple of times. Nonetheless, we know that Alabama will be able to move the ball, but it will come with a lot more resistance than it has earlier this season.
Alabama has dealt with a ton of injuries this season. On Saturday, they’ll be without RB Trey Sanders while OL Chris Owens is questionable and WR Henry Ruggs III will be a game-time decision.
Texas A&M Betting Form
Playing in the SEC is no easy task, but it has provided Texas A&M with plenty of tests. Already this season, the Aggies have played an out-of-conference game at No. 2 Clemson and a home game against No. 12 Auburn, losing both by a total of 22 points – cut that in half and make it an 11-point average of deficit. Nonetheless, we think Texas A&M can at least hang with almighty Alabama.
QB Kellen Mond will need to continue moving the ball methodically for this team. If you want to have a chance against Alabama, you have to keep its offense off the field. We feel like Texas A&M can do this, and that’ll be a big part in keeping the game close. Mond hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet. He has an average of 266.6 passing yards per game and a total of 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. It’s important to remember, though, that Texas A&M has faced much stiffer competition than Alabama.
As we mentioned above, the Aggies’ defense is pretty damn good. The pass-rush will need to continue its ways and the cornerbacks are capable of playing these elite Crimson Tide receivers pretty tough.
Betting Pick: Texas A&M (+17)
Don’t hyperventilate! We’re not asking Texas A&M to win this game outright, just keep it close enough. To be honest, a 17-point spread seems a bit low for this Alabama squad, and this number really stuck out to us. We’re taking the Aggies to cover the spread, and we feel great about it.
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#7 Florida Gators at #5 LSU Tigers (-13.5) – O/U: 56
Saturday, October 12, 2019 – 8:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: LSU (-13.5)
Whenever two unbeaten SEC teams get together, the world stops. That will certainly be the case when the Florida Gators head to Death Valley for a primetime matchup with the LSU Tigers. Our betting pick in this matchup is for LSU to cover the 13-point spread against Florida. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re backing the Bayou Bengals in this one.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Florida at LSU
It’s interesting to see a split here in terms of the way money is being handled in this situation. Although, we suppose it’s not surprising with two Top-10 teams squaring off. 52 percent of public bets are on Florida while 58 percent of all money wagered is on LSU. While we’ve got a split with the teams, the same cannot be said about the total. 64 percent of public bets/93 percent of all money wagered coming in on the total going over. It makes sense, considering there are plenty of good things to say about LSU’s offense.
Florida Betting Form
Florida is coming off a highly-emotional win, and we’ve seen plenty of teams falter the next week under these circumstances. We have to remember that these are college kids that we’re dealing with; the Florida players probably went crazy after defeating an unbeaten Auburn team. Now, you have to wonder if the Gators will have that same type of energy and focus they had last week.
We’ve been waiting for backup QB Kyle Trask to falter since taking over for Feleipe Franks but it just hasn’t happened yet. LSU’s defense has two games of allowing 38 points. So maybe this could be a sneaky spot for the Florida offense to stay on track. Trask did suffer a knee injury, and if he goes down, it’s going to be a big yikes for this team.
The Gators’ defense leads the nation in takeaways (three or more in each of the last four games). As well as an imposing pass-rush that will cause havoc. Creating those turnovers will be crucial in this tough road matchup, so this really is the biggest need for Florida on Saturday.
LSU Betting Form
LSU’s offense ranks first in points per game (54.6) and 3rd-down percentage (56.9) while also ranking second in total yards per game (571) and passing yards per game (416). Granted, the Tigers haven’t faced any imposing defenses like the one on the field this Saturday, they are certainly prepared. This is not the same LSU offense, with a mediocre QB, that we’ve seen in previous years.
QB Joe Burrow has put himself squarely in the Heisman race with an average of 372.8 passing yards per game and a total of 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Florida defense did a good job of keeping him in check during last season’s meeting. So look for LSU to put him in more advantageous spots. The Tigers have done a great job of hitting on a lot of deep passes this season and they’ll certainly need more of that.
As we mentioned, LSU’s defense had moments of weakness this season. However, with the home crowd getting all riled up for a primetime game. This is going to make incredibly tough for Florida to make changes at the line of scrimmage. In all honesty, that’s probably why the spread is so highly in favor of the Bayou Bengals in this one.
Betting Pick: LSU (-13.5)
We already made light of the fact that Florida will be playing its second undefeated opponent in as many weeks. However, that’s our main point of emphasis here. It’s really an unfortunate situation for them to be in and us LSU bettors will be the ones to take advantage of it. Speaking of advantages, LSU at home is as good as it gets. There’s a reason why this line is so damn high.
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