In this article, we’ll provide you with our top college football betting picks for Week 9 of the NCAAF season. These matchups include the Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes, Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines. We study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
13 Wisconsin Badgers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5) – O/U: 49.5
Saturday, October 26, 2019 – 12:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Ohio State (-14.5, buy to -14)
The Wisconsin Badgers might have got caught looking ahead in their last game before facing the Ohio State Buckeyes. Wisconsin was upended by the lowly Illinois Fighting Illini, so they have some catching up to this week. However, we don’t think it’ll happen this week, as Ohio State covering the spread is our top betting pick. Here are some reasons why we think that’ll be the outcome in this game.
Week 9 NCAAF Betting Lines Analysis: Wisconsin at Ohio State
Both the public and sharps agree with us on Ohio State covering the spread. There are about two-thirds of public bettors and all money wagered heading in that direction. In our opinion, it would behoove bettors to buy down a half-point to get the Buckeyes at -14. Doing that means we need Ohio State to win by a little more than two scores, instead of three.
Wisconsin Betting Form
Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding, with four shutouts in six games. The 24 points it allowed to Illinois last week were the most this season. Not that those 24 points should serve as a wake-up call, but this week’s opponent certainly should. Ohio State’s offense is averaging 49.7 points per game, which is best in the country.
The Badgers’ offense hasn’t been anything special this season but if they want to win, they’ll need to establish the running game. RB Jonathan Taylor is setting NCAA records by the minute and needs 43 rushing yards for 1,000 this season. He did put up a season-high 203 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the Week-4 matchup against Michigan. Needless to say, the Badgers will need a similar performance in order to have a chance in this one.
Wisconsin is 4-2 against the spread this season, with both non-covers coming against Big Ten opponents.
Ohio State Betting Form
Ohio State will look to continue its winning ways against Wisconsin, taking nine of the last 10 meetings. Six of the last seven meetings between the schools have been decided by 13 points or fewer, putting the spread at the right spot. Nonetheless, we believe Ohio State will put a misnomer on the eight meetings of that sample size.
While the Buckeyes haven’t played many great teams, they have certainly taken care of business. This team has overwhelming amounts of speed that can neutralize the power the Badgers bring to the table. QB Justin Fields is completing just over 70 percent of his passes with 30 total touchdowns (22 passing, 8 rushing) and only one interception. The Buckeyes have way too many receiving options for their opponents to match up with, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.
In order for Ohio State to completely dominate this game, eliminating the running-game is at the top of the list. Taylor has rushed for at least 80 yards in every game. By taking him out of the gameplan, that’ll make Wisconsin a passing team – which it is certainly not. The Buckeyes are allowing the eighth-fewest yards on the ground per game (93.3).
Ohio State has covered six of its seven games this season, with the only non-cover coming against Florida Atlantic in Week 1. The Buckeyes were favored by -28 in that game and wound up winning by 24 points.
Betting Pick: Ohio State (-14.5, buy down to -14)
In the classic battle of speed versus power, we have to give the home team the advantage in this one. Sure, Wisconsin could be motivated by that mishap last week, but that’ll only get you so far against a team like Ohio State. The Buckeyes have way too much weapon-power on offense and that’s where we think they’ll get the job done.
It will be a true rattling of the tiger cage, as we’ve got yet another huge SEC showdown with the Auburn Tigers traveling to Death Valley for a meeting with the LSU Tigers. The two teams have been excellent against the spread, making this game even more difficult to predict. However, we have a direction, and our top betting pick is the total going under 59 points. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
Week 9 NCAAF Betting Lines Analysis: Auburn at LSU
Although there’s about 80 percent of the money wagered coming in on the total going over, we have other thoughts. Both teams boast solid defenses, and Auburn’s running game could potentially kill lots of time on the clock. LSU does have a flawless passing attack, but we could also see Auburn’s defense neutralize a lot of those big plays.
Auburn Betting Form
Auburn ranks 12th in the country in rushing yards per game (240.1), and that tops in the SEC. This should be a great matchup against LSU’s defense, which ranks 15th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (102.7) and second in the SEC. Auburn will take a running-back-by-committee approach with RB JaTarvious Whitlow out for the game. This could end up being a huge absence, so it’ll be interesting to see how the RBBC pans out.
True-freshman QB Bo Nix will have his hands full in one of the toughest road venues. LSU’s defensive line is the healthiest it has been all season, so look for that to be a difference.
Auburn’s defense ranks best in the SEC, with 94.3 rushing yards allowed per game, and ninth-best in the nation. Not to mention, Auburn’s pass-rush is among the best in the country. To have a chance in this game, getting to LSU’s QB is of the utmost importance.
Auburn has covered six of its seven games, with the only non-cover coming at Florida in Week 6.
LSU Betting Form
LSU and QB Joe Burrow have the second-best passing offense in the entire country, with 385.7 yards per game. Not to mention, the entire offense is averaging 47.7 points per game, which ranks third-best in the country. Protecting Burrow against this imposing Auburn D-line will be incredibly important, consider LSU really thrives on the big play.
The defense for LSU should be up for the challenge against a true freshman QB. As we mentioned earlier, LSU’s D-line is at full strength. Rotating a number of those different guys is a huge benefit.
LSU has covered five of its seven games this season, with the non-covers being a 51-point win (-52 favorite) against Northwestern State and a push against Florida as -14 favorites. In reality, they have been nearly perfect ATS this season. The home team in this matchup has won 16 of the last 19 meetings, but it’s worth noting that LSU won on a last-second field goal at Auburn last season.
Betting Pick: Under 59
This game could very well turn into a ball-control type of game with Auburn’s running attack and young QB. Not to mention, we’ve got very strong defensive units on both sides of the field. In our opinion, the 59-point total seems like too much to hit on.
It’s another edition of one of the best rivalries in college football, as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish hit the road to take on the Michigan Wolverines. Notre Dame took last season’s meeting by the score of 24-17. We like them to do the same this season and that’s why Notre Dame covering the spread is our top betting pick. Let’s look at some more numbers to see why.
Week 9 NCAAF Betting Lines Analysis: Notre Dame at Michigan
Lots of the bettors agree with us on this game. Nearly three-fourths of public bets and all money wagered is in favor of the Fighting Irish. We’ve seen the Wolverines falter against solid competition, hence the favoritism on the other side. Notre Dame’s only loss this season came at Georgia, but the rest of the games have been solid performances.
Notre Dame Betting Form
The Fighting Irish come into this game off a bye-week, so having that extra time to prepare will come in handy. The well-balanced attack of this Notre Dame offense ranks 20th in the country for total yards per game (454.0). The running-game, in particular, has been fantastic over the last two games with over 500 yards on the ground. That has been a big reason why Notre Dame has the nation’s best turnover margin.
One thing that will help Notre Dame is getting pressure on Michigan’s QB. This is already a struggling offense, so having any type of pressure in his face should only do wonders. Michigan’s offense usually doesn’t function when there’s tons of disruption behind the line.
Notre Dame has covered four of its six games this season, with the only non-covers coming in its first and last games season. The Irish have won three of the last five games in this rivalry.
Michigan Betting Form
Aside from its game against Rutgers, there hasn’t been a whole game of offense put together by Michigan’s offense. We talk about this every single week, it seems, but you can’t place faith in this team against quality opponents. Michigan got off to a horrific start last week at Penn State, falling into a 21-0 hole, before finally losing by a touchdown. While it was a hopeful scene for this team to be competitive, it just shows they can’t be trusted for a full 60 minutes.
The Wolverines have a talented receiving core of receivers but it won’t matter if they can’t protect QB Shea Patterson. RB Zach Charbonnet will need to be great, not just good. Considering Notre Dame’s defense has had their struggles against the run in some of these games.
Michigan has only covered three of its seven games this season but has done so in three of the last four.
Betting Pick: Notre Dame (-1)
While the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, we don’t see that happening once again. Michigan had a tough conference battle at Penn State last week, while Notre Dame was relaxing and preparing. Look for the Fighting Irish to take the lead early and never look back.
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