Our NFL Computer Picks are chosen using an algorithm that analyzes historical sports data across the NFL that offer the best value bets to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks. The Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup features the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. In this article, we’ll take a look at the form of the teams and our top MNF prediction.
MNF Week 15 Computer Pick: Saints to cover the spread
The Week 15 slate concludes with a great Monday Night Football matchup as the Indianapolis Colts hit the road to face the New Orleans Saints. The Colts are 6-7 with little chance at making the playoffs while the Saints are 10-3 and looking to get a first-round bye. Our top NFL Computer Pick is for the Saints to cover the 8.5-point spread in front of their raucous home crowd. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why this is the pick we’re choosing.
Monday Night Football Betting Line: Colts at Saints
It comes as no surprise that the Saints are getting most of the backing here. In fact, 75 percent of public bets and 70 percent of all money wagered is heading in that direction. Things get a lot more difficult for opposing teams when they play at the Superdome, as this New Orleans crowd dials it up a few notches. This will be the sixth time that the Saints favored by seven points or more – they are 2-3 ATS in the previous five. Nonetheless, we believe they’ll even up that mark on Monday night.
Colts Betting Form
The Colts had their dreams of the playoffs shattered last week with a three-point loss in Tampa Bay. It was a game they should have won, leading by double-digits at one point. It was also their fourth loss in five games. Now, the Colts will have to do the unthinkable on Monday and get some help from other teams in order to keep the season. Making matters even worse, the Texans and Titans are both ahead of them at 8-5 and play each other twice in the final three weeks of the season.
Perhaps the biggest question for the Colts is whether WR T.Y. Hilton will be available for this game. He has been dealing with a calf injury that has kept him out of five of the last six Colts’ games. Of course, you have to wonder just how effective Hilton will be even if he does play. In Hilton’s only active game over the last six, he caught three passes on six targets for 18 yards. Tight end Jack Doyle should see more targets if Hilton misses this game.
In order for the Colts to be effective, they’ll need to run the football. It might be a bit easier to do, considering the Saints just put two of their best defensive linemen on season-ending injured reserve this week. RB Marlon Mack returned last week after a two-game absence but only posted 38 rushing yards on 13 carries – he did find the end zone, though. Nonetheless, pounding the rock will be their best chance to win, which will keep the Saints offense off the field.
The Colts pass defense could get absolutely torched in this matchup. In Week 14, Bucs QB Jameis Winston threw for 456 yards and six others threw for at least 295 yards. The list of QBs that did not reach that mark are among some of the worst in the NFL.
Saints Betting Form
While the Colts are struggling, the Saints are not. New Orleans is 9-2 over the last 11 games, covering the spread in eight of them. Not to mention, they have covered four of the last five against teams with a losing record.
It seems like every time the Saints are on Monday Night Football, Drew Brees is on the verge of breaking another record. This time is no different, as he sits two passing touchdowns behind Peyton Manning for the all-time lead. The last time this situation came up, Brees went bananas against the Redskins.
So, can that happen again? You bet! Especially, when Brees has weapons like RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas – the latter of the two actually leads the NFL in receptions. The Saints’ wide receivers will need to step up if TE Jared Cook misses this game because of the concussion he suffered last week.
Those key injuries to the Saints are DE Marcus Davenport and DT Sheldon Rankins, both of whom will miss the rest of the games this season. It’s truly a pair of heartbreaking losses for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. As they say, however, the show must go on. The Saints will need their crowd to be louder than ever on Monday night, as some of these players try to acclimate to their new roles – some extra motivation will certainly be helpful.
MNF Week 15 Computer Pick: Saints to cover the spread (-8.5)
The Saints are pretty damn good at home, especially in these primetime games. With a matchup against a team that had their deathblow last week, look for New Orleans to score early and often in this game. The Brees narrative needing three touchdowns to set the all-time record is very appealing here. That gives us all the confidence in the world that the Saints offense will be firing on all cylinders.
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