Week 4 of the NFL schedule has quite a few solid matchups on the docket that make for several interesting betting opportunities, but our top betting pick is the Green Bay Packers to cover the four-point spread against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4) – O/U: 46
Thursday, September 26th, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Packers -4
Odds Analysis: Bears at Redskins
The Packers are getting tons of backing with 73 percent of public bets/63 percent of money wagered coming their way. In addition, we’ve seen 60 percent of public bets/55 percent of money wagered on the total going over.
Eagles Betting Form
The Eagles had plenty of bad luck in their last two losses but this is a banged-up team that has to travel on a short week. After all, the Packers have the advantage of staying home while the Eagles have to make the somewhat wholesome journey out to the Midwest.
The Packers’ defense is only allowing an average of 11.3 points per game over the first three weeks. This, however, will be the most talented offenses Green Bay has faced early on, but we don’t think that’ll pose too many problems schematically. The Packers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention, Philly’s receivers dropped a total of seven passes in last week’s loss to the Lions. WR Alshon Jefferey is expected to return this week, but what a welcome-back party it’ll be as he’ll have to go against Jaire Alexander (Pro Football Focus’ top-rated CB) and the rest of the Packers’ secondary.
When looking at Green Bay’s defense, it is generating a consistent pass rush and that might make want Philly to go to the run. That, however, will be a lot easier said than done as the Eagles are averaging a paltry 57 yards per game on the ground.
Packers Betting Form
This will be the second Thursday night contest for the Packers already this season, but unlike the season opener, both teams only had four days to prepare for this one. For QB Aaron Rodgers, this is a fantastic opportunity for him to finally get this Green Bay offense trending in the right direction. Rodgers has yet to be picked off (against solid defenses of the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos) and Philly has allowed an average of 300.3 yards per game through the air.
The Eagles will be without both starting cornerbacks on the perimeter and are already allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. In addition to the two perimeter corners missing Thursday’s game, DT Tim Jernigan will also be out.
While we are looking from this game at a betting perspective and not fantasy points, it is important to note these key absences for the Eagles. After all, the Packers have one of the best receivers in Davante Adams and a respectable complement of pass-catchers in Marques Valdes Scantling and Geronimo Allison.
Betting Pick: Packers -4 (-110)
With exception to the first Thursday night game of the season, where the two teams had all offseason to prepare, we’ve seen the home team win outright in Weeks 2 and 3. Look for the banged-up Eagles roster to struggle on the road with a short week of preparation, and for Rodgers to carve up their secondary.
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