Earlier in the week, we discussed which NFL Week 18 picks against the spread to exploit from the opening betting lines. However, in this article, I will identify my favorite NFL Week 18 picks now that the lines have moved. Let’s dive into the games and see which NFL picks have been under-valued by the NFL sportsbooks.
NFL Expert Picks Week 18
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
NFL Week 18 Pick: Browns -6 (-110)
Earlier in the week, I wrote about the Bengals-Browns game and loved the Browns at +2.5. Well, they’re up to -6 now, so I hope you got in early like I did.
Both starting QBs aren’t playing and the Bengals would basically love to sit in the press box for this one so they don’t get hurt for the playoffs. Look for the Browns to take advantage of a fawning Bengals team that is looking ahead to the next week. Sure, -6 is a lot to cover, but I bet the Browns finally move the ball without Mayfield under center. The NFL is funny like that.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
NFL Week 18 Pick: Lions ML (+165)
Speaking of teams that have nothing to play for, here are the Packers heading into Detroit to face the Lions. This was actually one of the lines that stood out above all, considering Green Bay should be favored by multiple touchdowns over this putrid Detroit squad.
The Packers have already clinched the top spot in the NFC, and there is the question about whether or not they’re going to take two weeks off as opposed to one. Since they have the No. 1 seed, they need to decide if the rest or rhythm is more important.
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Atlanta Falcons
NFL Week 18 Pick: Falcons +4 (-110)
While the Saints do have something to play for, the Falcons would absolutely love to spoil a possible playoff spot against their division rivals. It would probably surprise some folks to know that three of the last four Falcons-Saints matchups have been decided by one score. In fact, the Falcons even had a lead for most of the early meeting between the teams but choked it away late at the end.
This is nothing more than a play against the number here. Some will argue that Atlanta had its playoff hopes dashed last week in Buffalo; while that is true, the Falcons probably knew they weren’t going to win that game. This is basically the Falcons’ playoff matchup right here, so look for them to come out with some vigor in this one.