Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – O/U: 52
Betting Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Time: Sunday 22nd September 1:00 p.m. EST
The Week 3 schedule has some solid matchups on it, but this one between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs takes the cake. Our betting pick is the Chiefs to cover the spread. Let’s dive into the facts and figures on why.
Odds Analysis: Ravens at Chiefs
The Chiefs opened as -6 favorites and currently sit at -5.5. KC is getting 61 percent of public bets/44 percent of total money wagered on the spread. As for the total, that opened at 51.5 and currently sits at 52. The over is getting 70 percent of public bets/53 percent of total money wagered.
Ravens Betting Form
The Ravens have looked solid in their first two games, clobbering the competition by a combined score of 82-27. Granted, the majority of that margin comes from a 59-10 drubbing over the Dolphins in Week 1. Last week, they escaped with a 23-17 victory over the Cardinals at home.
After facing two teams at the bottom of the totem pole, they’ll now be facing the cream of the crop. Expect the Ravens to have a run-centric game plan with QB Lamar Jackson adding in some dazzling plays here and there. Jackson has been outstanding with 596 passing yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. While the Ravens didn’t need his legs in Week 1, Jackson notched 120 yards on 16 carries in Week 2 against the Cardinals.
Chiefs Betting Form
The Chiefs are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight September games under head coach Andy Reid. He is always one of the most-prepared coaches in the league, and this year has been no different. KC has outmatched its competition by the score of 68-36 so far this season.
With the Chiefs already facing a potent Jaguars’ defense on the road, we feel confident that Reid will put QB Patrick Mahomes in advantageous positions to move the ball. And why wouldn’t we? The term “limiting the Chiefs” often looks like something like just under 300 passing yards from Mahomes. This is one of the most potent offenses in NFL history, so we should expect more of the same.
Betting Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Baltimore did lose a tight 27-24 tilt last season in Kansas City, but 11 penalties for 112 yards ended up being the determining factor. We can’t say the same scenario will play out and, of course, it’s tough to predict how penalties will play a factor. However, we do know the Ravens haven’t seen a potent offense like that of the Chiefs in quite some. Look for Mahomes & Co. to get the job done, and cover the spread in the process.
Bettors can find the best odds on this game at Caesars Sportsbook, where the Chiefs are favored by -5.5. Most of the other books are offering KC at -6.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – O/U: 48
Time: Sunday 22nd September 4:25 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Chargers -3
Yet another AFC showdown of playoff hopes takes place out West on Sunday. Our betting pick is the Los Angeles Chargers to cover the -3 spread against the Houston Texans. Let’s take a look why.
Odds Analysis: Texans at Chargers
The Chargers opened as -3.5 favorites but dipped slightly to -3. It’s actually the Texans, though, getting 69 percent of public bets/80 percent of money wagered. The total moved slightly as well, going from 49 to 48.5. Bettors like the over in this one, as 52 percent of public bets/72 percent of money wagered is heading that way.
Texans Betting Form
The Texans have played two down-to-the-wire games in each of the first two weeks, with each of them going in opposite directions. In Week 1 they lost a last-second heartbreaker to the Saints on the road. That was followed by hanging on for dear life last week against the Jaguars, not allowing them to get the go-ahead two-point conversion in the closing seconds.
QB Deshaun Watson will need to get the ball out quick if the Texans want to have a chance in this game. There are some of the most havoc-wreaking defenders on the other side of the ball, while his offensive line isn’t handling that type of heat. Look for Houston to come into this game with a conservative game plan that makes sure its star QB doesn’t get his head knocked off.
Chargers Betting Form
The Chargers lost a heartbreaker in Week 2 by the score of 13-10 to the Lions. It was truly a disastrous day that could’ve easily gone the other way, as LA missed two field goals, had two touchdowns called back because of penalties, and even a turnover in the red zone.
QB Phillip Rivers is one of the best in football at rallying his team back together. This Chargers team has suffered numerous setbacks at the kicking position over the years but still manage to always find themselves in the playoff picture. Regular kicker Michael Badgley is expected to return this week.
RB Austin Ekeler will also play a huge role, as he leads the AFC in scrimmage yards with 287 through two weeks.
The key in this game could be the Chargers’ ferocious pass rush against the Texans’ turnstile offensive line. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are two of the best at the rushing the QB, and Watson has already been sacked an NFL-high 10 times this season.
Betting Pick: Chargers -3
The Chargers are 30-5 against the spread in their last 35 games against AFC South opponents. We like Rivers & Co. to bounce back with a strong win after a disastrous Week 2 performance. Not to mention, that LA pass-rush will make it hard for Watson to get his feet set. While the Texans also have a great pass-rush, the Chargers are more adapt on offense to dealing with that set of circumstances.
All of the major sportsbooks have the Chargers listed as -3 favorites, so you’ll have to do some shopping around to find better odds. If bettors really feel the need to take this game under a field goal for LA, they can simply buy an extra half-point or whole-point on most sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – O/U: 43.5
Time: Sunday 22nd September 4:25 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Steelers +6.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers begin life without QB Ben Roethlisberger as they travel out to the West coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers. We’re backing the Steelers to cover the +6.5 spread for our betting pick (7/7.5 if you’re feeling lucky). Let’s take a look why.
Odds Analysis: Steelers at 49ers
This line actually opened at -7.5 at some sportsbooks once the Roethlisberger news hit and dropped down to -6.5. The 49ers’ spread has gotten 52 percent of public bets while 61 percent of total money wagered is on the Steelers to cover. Not much movement has happened on the total, going from 44 to 43.5. Most bettors are on the over here, with 66 percent of public bets/67 percent of money wagered is going that route.
Steelers Betting Form
While the Steelers are without their future Hall-of-Fame QB, backup Mason Rudolph is certainly capable of steering the ship. Rudolph had an illustrious career at Oklahoma State, and while this is a much different scenario, we did see him move the offense effectively; his only interception went right through the hands of WR Donte Moncrief.
The Steelers’ defense will need to get back to basics. Aside from the first half of last week’s matchup against the Seahawks, this unit has been shredded to bits and pieces. However, you really can’t count out such a talented bunch with plenty of motivation. Not to mention, the Steelers did add S Minkah Fitzpatrick via trade from the Dolphins.
All in all, the Steelers know their season is on the line for these next few weeks. Look for them to start their ascent back to the top this weekend in San Francisco. Well, Santa Clara – we’ll never get used to that.
49ers Betting Form
On the other hand, these 49ers have looked great after two weeks. They’ve won both games by double-digits and gotten it done from a number of different players. Even so, we don’t know exactly who this team is yet, considering their two wins have come against inferior competition.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns last week. That’s a major relief, considering his disastrous training camp and preseason work. In all honesty, it’s mostly been San Francisco’s rushing attack doing most of the damage. Even with losing Tevin Coleman in Week 1, the 49ers have a three-headed rushing attack that’s getting it done. In fact, their 178.5 yards per game on the ground ranks fourth-best in football through two weeks.
With two games against clumsy quarterbacks like Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, we’re also not exactly sure who this 49ers’ defense is yet. Granted, Rudolph (and his inexperience) could arguably be thrown into that category, but we’re not even sure about him yet either.
Betting Pick: Steelers +6.5 (buy to +7 or +7.5)
We haven’t seen the Steelers play their best football yet and it’s probably coming on Sunday. This team is too well-coached and there’s too much talent to let the season go by the wayside. While the 49ers have performed well, we could certainly see a letdown performance coming against a seemingly-downtrodden team.
All of the major sportsbooks have the Steelers listed as +6.5 underdogs, so you’ll have to do some shopping around to find better odds. If bettors really feel the need to take this game to +7 or +7.5, they’ll have to buy the extra half-point or point themselves. We highly recommend doing so and getting this game at the key number of +7.
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