NFL Picks Against the Spread | Week 5
Chief Sports Writer
The Week 5 schedule doesn't have a ton of exciting games on it, but there's always a chance to make money in these situations.
Last week was another 2-1 performance, bringing that season record in this article back up to 5-7... still plenty of work to be done. The under in the Cleveland Browns-Dallas Cowboys game was nowhere close but I did get winners with the Buffalo Bills beating the Las Vegas Raiders and the under barely slipping by in the Philadelphia Eagles-San Francisco 49ers game.
As usual, the odds in this article are brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 11, 2020 | 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA
|CAR||Spread: +1.5||Moneyline: +105|
|ATL||Spread: -1.5||Moneyline: -120|
|Spread||Bets: CAR, 60%||Money: CAR, 86%|
|Moneyline||Bets: CAR, 69%||Money: ATL, 73%|
|Total||Bets: Over, 83%||Money: Over, 61%|
Sure, the 54 total is certainly up there, but there are enough factors that should have us ready for a high-scoring shootout.
The Falcons are allowing the second-most total yards and passing yards, which is welcoming news to the ears of Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater and a very talented complement of WRs in Robbie Anderson (377 yards, 1 TD), DJ Moore (288 yards) and Curtis Samuel (147 yards). Let’s also not forget how bad Atlanta is against the covering pass-catching RBs – it’s a tradition as old as time.
As for the Falcons’ offense, they really need a bounce-back performance after flopping in front of the nation on Monday Night Football. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan really needs to get the ball to WRs Julio Jones (assuming he plays) and Calvin Ridley, and he will. While the Panthers are allowing the seventh-fewest yards per pass, they do rank 26th in DVOA against the pass.
Since the 2016 season, Ryan has tossed 17 TDs and only three INTs against the Panthers. Bridgewater’s 73-percent completion percentage should bode well in a matchup that will have him throwing shorter routes at first, but possibly airing it out towards the end of the game.
Betting Pick: Over 54
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 11, 2020 | 4:25 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
|NYG||Spread: +10||Moneyline: +360|
|DAL||Spread: -10||Moneyline: -435|
|Spread||Bets: DAL, 65%||Money: DAL, 52%|
|Moneyline||Bets: DAL, 68%||Money: DAL, 82%|
|Total||Bets: 50 / 50 %||Money: 50 / 50 %|
I don’t think most people are expecting this to be a close game, and it might be, but it’s sure as hell going to be a lot of fun. Typically, this Cowboys-Giants rivalry produces some hard-hitting matchups. However, if 2020 has taught us anything, things are not going like they are supposed to.
Both teams come into the Week 5 matchup, ranking in the bottom-third of the NFL in defensive DVOA. The Giants actually had an inspiring defensive performance in LA last week, but this is a Cowboys offense that is clicking on all cylinders – it’s just the defense that can’t keep up.
Since the Week 1 loss to the Rams, the Cowboys’ games have the following number of total points: 79, 69, 87. That is absolutely unheard of! Giants’ games haven’t been as lucky, but they also haven’t faced any easy defenses in the Steelers, Bears, 49ers and Rams – the Giants still haven’t eclipsed 20 points yet this season, but Sunday is the perfect opportunity to do so.
Betting Pick: Over 54
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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 11, 2020 | 8:20 p.m. EST | Watch: NBC
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, WA
Total: 57.5 points
|MIN||Spread: +7||Moneyline: +270|
|SEA||Spread: -7||Moneyline: -315|
|Spread||Bets: SEA, 63%||Money: MIN, 93%|
|Moneyline||Bets: SEA, 81%||Money: MIN, 97%|
|Total||Bets: Under, 53%||Money: Under, 53%|
There is a major discrepancy in betting patterns here, with the Seahawks getting a lot of favoritism in bets placed and the Vikings getting over 90 percent of the money coming in. Perhaps, some of this could have to do with the Seahawks’ travel schedule, bouncing between the East and West coasts the last couple of weeks. The other reasoning is simple – Minnesota might be on the verge of making a comeback this season.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins looked better in the Week 4 against the Houston Texans, making that his first game this season without an interception. RB Dalvin Cook has been rocking and rolling over the last two weeks, with 311 yards and three TDs on the ground. WRs Adam Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson are turning into a very formidable duo for Cousins to find in open space.
This should be a nice opportunity for the Vikings to keep it going on offense, mainly through the air. While the Seahawks have been great against the run (allowing the third-fewest yards per carry) they have been abysmal defending the pass, ranking dead-last in allowing yards per pass and 29th in DVOA. Not to mention, Jamal Adams will miss his second straight game.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson might have the league’s best 1-2 punch at WR with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Minnesota will definitely need to improve its pass defense in this game if it wants to have a chance to win. In my opinion, the Vikings won’t be great, but just enough to keep this game within a touchdown.
Betting Pick: Vikings +7