The lid goes on Week 7 of the NFL season after tonight’s edition of Monday Night Football takes place between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. This game is incredibly important to the NFC playoff picture, as the 5-1 Bears look to stay hot against the 4-2 Rams.
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In this article, I’ll evaluate the best prop bets from tonight’s game. As always, the odds are brought to you by Bet365 and William Hill.
Darrell Henderson – Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Bears defense is second best in pass efficiency rate against the pass, so it makes sense for the Rams to try and grind it out on the ground. Henderson has done well when given the opportunity, rushing for 80+ yards three times in four instances of getting 10+ carries. The Rams have started to realize he should be toting the rock more often than Malcolm Brown, who Henderson has slightly out-snapped in each of the last two games.
Four different RBs have rushed for at least 68 yards against the Bears, and those players weren’t even that great. Chicago’s run defense ranks slightly better than league average this season, making this a bit of a calculated move. LA is favored by six points, lending some optimism to the fact that it’ll have the lead and want to lean more on the run.
Darrell Henderson has a first down or TD on 35% of his runs
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 23, 2020
Highest rate among all RBs pic.twitter.com/1SdDEBIkuw
The publication from the tweet above even gave Henderson its second-highest grade (86.9) amongst all RBs — only behind Raheem Mostert of the San Francisco 49ers.
Henderson To Run Riot Tonight?
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David Montgomery – Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Cordarrelle Patterson – Touchdown (Any Time, +450)
The Rams have struggled a defending pass-catching RBs this season:
| DAL | 5 rec, 53 rec yds, TD |
| PHI | 6 rec 60 yds |
| BUF | 4 rec 50 yds |
| NYG | 6 rec 43 yds |
| WSH | 11 rec 70 yds |
| SF | 5 rec 29 yds |
After getting three targets in each of his first three games (6 rec, 64 yds, TD), Montgomery has received six, eight and five (14 rec, 99 yds) in the three games since. This is a new way of doing things for the second-year player but he’s adapting nicely. In fact, Foles has been looking to check down more often recently in his career. Over his last 11 games, the former Super Bowl MVP has these numbers of targets to RBs: 7, 12, 10, 11, 7, 8, 7, 6, 3, 8, 11, 6.
Facing a key 2nd & 11, #Bears QB Nick Foles identified man coverage and yelled "Rub! Rub!" to Allen Robinson, scheming David Montgomery wide open against a blitz.
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) October 9, 2020
This perfect call (and throw) basically won the Bears the game. HUGE play. pic.twitter.com/PCuZz0K31W
There is essentially no love in the prop betting market for Patterson, only leaving the option of him scoring a touchdown; DFS players could certainly benefit here. I would think this is a perfect opportunity to showcase Patterson, especially after seeing what the 49ers did to them last week by going with more of a horizontal rushing attack. If Montgomery struggles to break free again, Patterson could see a few more snaps in that scenario.
Cooper Kupp – Over 4.5 Receptions (-160) + Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Sometimes there a plethora of stats to back up these prop bets. And sometimes, there are just gut feels that seem. Well, the latter is exactly what I’m doing tonight with Kupp, who is coming off one of the worst games of his NFL career.
Last week on Sunday Night Football against the 49ers, Kupp had a season-low three receptions and 11 yards on nine targets. There were a few drops, including one in the end zone that could’ve changed the course of the game. Kupp has the most favorable matchup of any Rams WR tonight, running almost (if not) all of his routes from the slot position.
.@CooperKupp = playmaker. pic.twitter.com/xWMvWJxROT
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 17, 2020
The Bears are getting a lot of the money, as opposed to public backing, thrown in their direction tonight. After all, this is a well-rested team that had an extra three days to prepare for their last game against the Carolina Panthers and now an extra day this week for Monday Night Football. With all of that being said, it could put the Rams in more passing situations than we originally thought.
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