The Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs begins on Saturday with an AFC matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills. The Colts were able to snag the AFC’s last playoff spot thanks to a win and a Miami Dolphins’ loss (to the Bills) in Week 17. Meanwhile, the 13-3 Bills finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak, so look for them to make some noise in the playoffs.
Buffalo was installed as a 6.5-point favorite at the open with -290 moneyline odds to win the game outright; Indianapolis has +245 moneyline odds to win outright. In addition, the total has been set at 51 points.
I do like the Bills to win and move on to the Divisional Round next week. After all, their three losses this season came to the Kansas City Chiefs (in a monsoon), Tennessee Titans (in a weird Tuesday night game) and Arizona Cardinals (on a last-second Hail Mary play). Under normal circumstances, this could be an even-better team. Plus, the Bills Mafia will have some of its members in attendance in Orchard Park.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market from the Colts-Bills matchup. The odds in this article are from William Hill Sports – Use the promo code TS500 for a 100% first-time sign-up deposit bonus of up to $500.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 9, 2021 1:05 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Prop Bets Watch:
Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+140)
Over 301.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Bills opened with the highest implied team total of the Wild-Card Round, but the Ravens have since taken over that title. Nevertheless, I’m taking the over on a number of different Allen prop bets, believing that he’ll put on a show against the Indy defense.
Allen finished the season with multiple TD passes in each of his last five games, and in seven of the last eight; he also passed for 300+ yards four times in those eight games.
Indy may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but this unit wasn’t particularly dominant down the stretch. Not to mention, the Colts also didn’t face a lot of the NFL’s elite offensive units in that span either.
Philip Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) at Buffalo Bills
Prop Bets Watch:
Over 1.5 TD Passes (-150)
Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Over 36.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
This is certainly going to be an all-out aerial attack from the Colts on Saturday, and by “aerial attack,” let’s make sure we all use that term lightly. They will throw the ball plenty, albeit in shorter routes. The incoming number of points from the Bills will also set the offensive tempo in this game.
Luckily, the weather in Buffalo should wind up just being cold – no rain/snow or heavy winds.
Rivers started showing some signs of slowing down at the end of the regular season, with no more than two TD passes or 300+ yards in each of the team’s last six games. A lot of that can be chalked up to RB Jonathan Taylor having a great stretch run, but he’ll be a side piece in this game. Look for Rivers to do as much as he possibly can to keep pace with Allen and the Bills.
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