It’s yet another week of NFL player props to take advantage of; this time we’re doing it for the running backs in Week 10. The players in these matchups are primed to have a big day, whether they’re running the ball or catching it – or doing both. With only seven weeks to go in the regular season, it’s time to start getting down to business.
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In this article, I will identify the best RB value in the player prop betting market. The odds in the article are from William Hill. Don’t forget you can double your bankroll with my William Hill promo code TS500. The code will get you a risk-free bet up to $500!
Table of contents
- Mike Davis vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Duke Johnson vs. Cleveland Browns
- James Conner vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Davis vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 pm | Watch: FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Prop Bets Watch:
- Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 5.5 Receptions (+120)
Davis will be uber-chalk on both on DraftKings and FanDuel this week with Christian McCaffrey out. His price tag is low enough that he can basically hit value by catching a couple of passes and stumbling to a few yards. Thanks for the free space, guys!
In reality, he should have never been priced that low. Even with McCaffrey in the lineup, Davis had five catches on six targets for 34 yards last week against the Chiefs. Now, he’ll face a Buccaneers team that he faced in Week 2, catching all eight of his targets for 74 yards.
Tampa Bay isn’t very generous to opposing teams running the football, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL; but it does funnel plenty of targets to opposing RBs. This is a perfect opportunity for us to take advantage of that and ride Davis to a couple of prop bet wins. In the graphic above, you’ll see how pass-catching RBs have done against the Bucs this season.
Duke Johnson vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1:00 pm | Watch: FOX
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 92.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
No official word has been given yet, but it looks like David Johnson will be out for Sunday’s game. That means Duke (Johnson) will get a crack against his old team and one of those good ole fashioned revenge games! This is going to be confusing… we’ll just call him Duke.
After (David) Johnson left last week’s game, Duke filled in admirably for 73 total yards (41 rush, 32 receiving) with a TD.
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Duke Johnson facing the Browns in Week 10 in what would be his first real chance at an every down role. pic.twitter.com/puQm5KFyr3
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 10, 2020
The Browns have been quite awkward this season in terms of allowing production, allowing only two RBs to go over 100+ yards and then nobody else to eclipse 60 yards. However, the receiving game has been a little better, as six different RBs have been targeted at least four times against Cleveland, with four of them getting 35+ receiving yards.
James Conner vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 4:25 pm | Watch: FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Conner had an absolutely dreadful game against the Cowboys last week, rushing for only 22 yards on nine carries. If you tuned in around the NFL for Week 9, you know that it was just absolute disaster everywhere.
I do like Conner’s chances of busting out in a big way against the Bengals, who are allowing the most yards per carry (5.2) and rank eighth DVOA against the run. As a result, seven different RBs have rushed for 75+ yards.
James Conner had season-low rush-yard totals of 9 and 44 before last week's game against the Cowboys (22). Following those games, he popped off for 100+ rushing yards/TD each time.
— Al Walsh (@14AdotWalsh) November 13, 2020
Conner is facing the Bengals (allowing an NFL-high 5.2 yards per carry) this week. ?
We don’t have any odds available for Conner yet, due to the “uncertainty” of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger playing- he should. Nevertheless, I’m loving him this week. In both of Conner’s lowest rushing-yard outputs this season (9, 44), he popped off with a 100-yard game/TD the next week.
