In Week 6 of the NFL season, we’re going to take a different approach with our prop bets. This time around, we’ll take a look at the best value of these prop bets by position, rather than going through particular games. In hopes of doing this, we’ll find the absolute best value on the board.
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There are some fantastic matchups to dive into for running backs this week. The ones being dissected will be Alexander Mattison of the Minnesota Vikings facing the Atlanta Falcons, James Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Detroit Lions, and David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears taking on the Carolina Panthers.
All of the props in this article are brought to you by William Hill.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
US Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Projected Weather: Dome
RB To Watch: Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings)
Props To Watch: Literally everything… but mainly Receptions, Receiving Yards, TDs
You can pretty much write the RB facing the Falcons in here weekly with a damn Sharpie marker at this point. I mean, really… How much more do we have to see before this team actually changes things for itself already? The news is out: Atlanta cannot defend pass-catching RBs.
Just sitting here waiting for those Alexander Mattison receiving prop bets to see the light of day… pic.twitter.com/b941pWCZjd
— Al Walsh (@14AdotWalsh) October 15, 2020
This week’s contestant to have fantasy fun against the Falcons is Mattison, the Vikings backup RB. Dalvin Cook still isn’t ruling himself out for Week 6 but sources around the team say there’s no way they’ll let him play against a downtrodden 0-5 Atlanta team. No worries, Mattison got this.
On the season, the Falcons have now allowed RBs to have 37 catches on 42 targets for 323 receiving yards and four TDs.
Get Mattison Over 3.5 Receptions at William HillDetroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Projected Weather: 80°F, Calm
RB To Watch: James Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Props To Watch: Rushing+Receiving Yards, Receptions, TDs
If you’re a Lions fan, you would hope that the team fixed their run-stopping issues during the bye week. Unfortunately, it might not be just that easy. Detroit is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (T-3rd worst in NFL), and opponents have no issue running on this unit, doing so on an NFL-high 50.2% of their plays.
Enter into the picture: James Robinson, the lead RB for the Jaguars. Robinson hasn’t necessarily been terrorizing opposing defenses on the ground (only one 100+ rushing yards in five games) but I do love the idea of finding some total-yards props for him. While the Lions do have that anemic rushing defense, there is a chance they could run away with this game; that would force the Jags to throw the ball more.
James Robinson smash week?
— fat mike (@jacob_vican22) October 15, 2020
-Lions rank dead last in defending the short area of the field
-projects for the 8th most touches, 5th most receptions for RB’s
-ranks 3rd in yards from scrimmage in last 4 game
While the Jags’ running game is enticing this week, it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Packers RB Aaron Jones saw eight targets (four receptions) and Saints RB Alvin Kamara saw four (three receptions) – both gained well over 100 total yards. While those seem like steep comparisons for Robinson, he is a three-down back that is capable of doing it all on the field. In terms of total yards this season, Robinson’s body of work looks like this:
90 (vs. IND)
120 (@TEN)
129 (vs. MIA)
107 (@CIN)
70 (@HOU)
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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Projected Weather: 70°F, Calm
RB To Watch: David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)
Props To Watch: Rushing+Receiving Yards, Receptions, TDs
Despite the Bears sitting at 4-1, Montgomery has been a major disappointment for fantasy owners this season. That could all change with a glorious matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks second worst in yards allowed per carry (5.4) and fourth worst in DVOA run defense.
Montgomery does have some legit excuses for each of the last two weeks. After all, he did face the Bucs (No. 1 run defense) and Colts (No. 3 run defense) in those games. The interesting stat to note with Montgomery this season is his work in the passing game; of course, he is needed more there with Tarik Cohen out for the season. In fact, he had a combined 10 receptions on 14 targets for 60 yards in those last two games against the Bucs and Colts – both of those without Cohen.
The Panthers’ run defense ranks 25th in total yards per game and 31st in rushing yards per play. If there were ever a time for Bears running back David Montgomery to get back on track, it would be now. https://t.co/bwkDWNHDsI
— Daily Chronicle – Shaw Local (@Daily_Chronicle) October 14, 2020
Carolina will certainly afford Montgomery all of the opportunities he needs. In five games this season, the Panthers have allowed six different RBs at least five targets and three others rushed for over 100 yards.
Get 87.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards Line at William Hill
