As we get to the midway point of the NFL season, we’re starting to get a better feel for the players and teams. Each week presents a different matchup that could be profitable for us, taking advantage of something in the numbers that may not have been originally seen at first.
In this article, I will identify the best value in player props from Week 8 of the NFL season. The odds displayed are from Bet365 and William Hill.
This week, I will evaluate the following matchups: Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) at Cincinnati Bengals, James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Baltimore Ravens, and Le’Veon Bell (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. New York Jets.
Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Prop Bets Watch
Over 100.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Earlier this week on the Taking Sides podcast, I proclaimed my love for the total going over in this game. After all, both defenses rank in the bottom third of most advanced metrics and now that we’re coming up on the trade deadline, the Bengals already began their ploy to unload some expensive talent. On Wednesday, DE Carlos Dunlap was traded to Seattle, giving them one less important body up front. And make no mistake about it – other names could soon be on the move too.
Henry is garnering serious MVP consideration this season, averaging 110.5 yards per game with 7 TDs to boot. In fact, he just had a streak of three straight multi-TD games snapped last week against the Steelers.
It’s somewhat shocking to know that only one individual (Nick Chubb) has rushed for 100+ yards against the Bengals this season. However, plenty more have rushed for respectable totals (seven different players from 60-95 yards) and every RB to get 10 carries had at least 4.2 yards per carry against them. Hence, Cincy being tied for third worst in yards allowed per carry (4.9) – the same as Tennessee.
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James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Prop Bets Watch:
Under 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Admittedly, this is one of those spreads that I look at and scratch my head repeatedly. The Ravens are sizeable four-point favorites against the undefeated Steelers. As we know, this is a hard-hitting rivalry with mostly low-scoring games.
Conner finds himself in a brutal matchup, in addition to the grim outlook via the spread. Baltimore ranks third DVOA in run defense this season, allowing only one 100-yard rusher (Miles Sanders) and then it’s a graveyard of individual performances going under at least 75 yards.
Although the Ravens are allowing 4.6 yards per carry, they are coming off the bye week with a chance to get those ailing bodies rested. Conner does have 100-yard performances in three of his six games but all of those came at home. Given everything we know about the matchup, and the awkward spread, I’m willing to bet Conner doesn’t hit his number this week.
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Le’Veon Bell (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. New York Jets
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Prop Bets Watch
Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Over 51.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
Ahhh, the smell of November – it’s revenge season! After thankfully getting traded from the Jets a few weeks ago, Bell will get plenty of chances to take aim at his former team in a game that KC should win easily.
Of course, there will be a lot of risk in this bet, considering this is only Bell’s second game with the Chiefs (and fourth all season). In his first game with KC, Bell toted the rock six times for 39 yards and did not even receive a target in the easy win over Denver.
At the end of the day, I bet there will be a certain lack of prop bets in the marketplace for Bell in the rushing/receiving yards. However, a multi-TD game is certainly in play. We all know KC head coach Andy Reid is one of the more intelligent minds in the league; he knows how badly Bell wants to stick it to the Jets.
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