Looking at the spread, the undefeated Steelers have been installed as seven-point favorites, with the game total sitting at 44 points. Technically, the Eagles sit atop the NFC East at 1-2-1, but we can chalk that up to being members of the worst division in football.
The odds in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 11, 2020 | 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Total: 44 points
Eagles Team Total – Under 18.5 Points (-115)
This is an incredibly difficult matchup for Philly on every level. For starters, the Steelers have the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense and moving the ball through the air will be difficult s with all of the injuries to the Eagles’ WRs. Philly has been gradually scoring more points each week (17, 19, 23, 25) in a somewhat eerie manner; this is the week it takes a tumble.
One of the biggest mismatches in this game is the Steelers’ D-line (2nd in adjusted sack rate) against the Eagles’ O-line (20th). In that area of the game, we can expect some turnovers from this opportunistic Pittsburgh defense. Philly QB Carson Wentz has only faced this team once in his life (it was a win), so that it’s more likely that he’ll be very confused in this black and yellow swarm.
The total isn’t lending much optimism in the Eagles’ favor either. This game has the lowest current total (44) of the week, not including the three games without a number assigned yet.
This is tough to write, considering Conner is on my fantasy team, but I don’t think he is going to ball outrageous on Sunday. While the Eagles’ run defense isn’t as dominant as usual, they still have some of the finer qualities that are left behind.
Working against Conner is the fact that the Steelers’ backfield has three other capable options in Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland. Conner can definitely catch passes out of the backfield, but so can the other guys.
Most of Pittsburgh’s success will be coming through the air, so that is really what is going to bring down his chances of a him
Juju Smith-Schuster – Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When game planning for these prop bets against the Eagles, we have to look at which receivers will be available over the middle of the field. After all, the three pass catchers with the three highest yardage totals fit that mold – George Kittle, Tyler Boyd, Cooper Kupp.
Smith-Schuster runs 69 percent of his slots out of the slot, making him just the guy we were searching for. With the ground game getting clogged up and Philly’s outside corners being strong, look for Ben Roethlisberger to find comfort in JuJu over the middle.
Also, take a look closer to kickoff and see where Smith-Schuster’s receptions prop number is at. He has been one of the most consistent Steelers’ WR so far this season with catch total of seven, six and four this season. We should probably see that reception number around 5.5.
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