The Sunday slate in NFL Week 13 gets capped off with a matchup between the Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs. And with that in mind, I have turned my attention to my Sunday Night Football picks once again. Here are the three best areas of profitability in the Sunday Night Football NFL picks.
Sunday Night Football Picks for Broncos at Chiefs
I couldn’t believe my eyes when first seeing that 70% of bets and 90% of the money is actually on the Broncos at +9.5. It’s no secret that the Chiefs have underperformed this season, but my goodness that is something else. Not only do we get this optimistic outlook, but KC is also coming off its bye week with one of the best coaches in football on its side; Andy Reid has been historically successful when coming off the bye. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs have won 11 straight meetings against the Broncos.
The bye week will have also been needed for Patrick Mahomes to get back on track with his main weapons. Mahomes has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last six meetings with the Broncos- one of those starts in Oct 2019 was cut short due to injury.
Over 47 Points (-110)
Looking at the betting landscape on the total, we’re seeing 65% of the bets going towards the under while 75% of the money is on the over. Of course, we should have all the confidence in the world with Mahomes and the Chiefs coming off the bye, but Teddy Bridgewater is no longer listed on the injury report and ready to go. His availability is key in making sure we get this total where it needs to go. After all, we have seen six of the last eight Broncos-Chiefs matchups go for 50+ total points.
Travis Kelce – Over 72.5 Receiving Yards
When analyzing the difference in production against the Broncos from a Travis Kelce vs. Tyreek Hill scenario, Kelce is clearly the main beneficiary here. In fact, if we take the top receiving yardage totals from each player since 2016, Kelce owns the top eight! This includes five 100-yard games and eight with at least 78. Kelce is clearly the way to go over Hill in this matchup.