The Super Bowl is a bettor’s dream, because if you can think of it, you can probably bet it. Whether you want to bet the coin toss, the drink color dumped on the winning coach or the first touchdown, you’re only limited by your imagination and your bankroll.
However, the majority of those bets are like going to the roulette table: fun, but sheer luck. Sticking to trends and information takes a bit more work, but gives you a much better chance to get a win. If you’re looking for a few plays for the big game, these picks can give you a good shot at a win.
Betting the Game: Cincinnati Bengals +170
Taking the points tends to be a waste of time, so if you’re betting on the Bengals, you’d better believe they can win the game. That said, the Bengals have been a great play as an underdog, winning the game outright in nine of their past 14 games when they’ve been getting points. Cincinnati has won six of its past seven overall, and the lone exception was when they were resting starters in the season finale against Cleveland.
The Rams, meanwhile, are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite this year and all five of their losses came when they were favored. With how well the Bengals have played to get here, they look like the pick.
Betting the Score: Under 48.5
These teams tend not to put up a lot of points. Both have a history of low-scoring Super Bowls (neither has ever scored more than 23 points in the big game) and both have underrated defenses that are likely to play a role in shutting down the opposition. Both offenses have struggled in pass protection, which should help turn touchdown drives into field goals. Throw in that both teams tend to make smart adjustments at the half on the defensive side of the ball, and this should slide under the total.
Betting Early: Rams -0.5 First Quarter
The Rams tend to start games quickly; the Bengals, not so much. Cincinnati prides itself on making halftime adjustments and turning them into wins, while Los Angeles usually gets the show on the road quickly. The Bengals have only led after 15 minutes once in their past five games, and that was because the Titans turned the ball over the first time they touched the ball. The Rams are far more likely to lead early.
Betting Props: Over 5.5 Sacks
These teams have both struggled with pass protection, and both have very good defensive lines, which should mean that Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford find themselves with little time to pass. Much has been made of Burrow getting sacked nine times in the win over the Titans, but the Bengals’ defensive line quietly got Patrick Mahomes four times in the AFC championship game. As long as Cincinnati can get to Stafford at least a couple times, Aaron Donald should do the rest of the work to help this prop hit the number.