TNF Picks – Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints | Week 13


Top TNF Pick - Take the Saints on +4.5

Week 13 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. In this article, I will identify the three most profitable bets from this contest.

The Cowboys and Saints will both look to shake off the Thanksgiving Day shame, as they lost last week. Clearly, Dallas has a much more optimistic road ahead as it leads the division in the NFC East by multiple games. New Orleans, on the other hand, is tied with three other teams at 5-6 for the final wild-card spot.

Without further ado, let's dive into my top NFL picks for Thursday night.

Patriots at Falcons - Thursday Night Football Picks 

Saints +4.5 (-110)

This line actually opened at +7 for the Saints, so the value has certainly dissipated by this point. However, +4.5 is still a key number that we can take advantage of. If you’d like to buy back up into the 6–7-point range, there are some options to attach together and create a same-game parlay so that the asking price doesn’t seem so expensive.

Anyways, this is a massive point swing that can’t be ignored. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing performance on Thanksgiving Day, and most peoples’ opinions of them aren’t too high. But this is what makes sense for the Saints, that they would be in an even better spot spread-wise after that dreadful game. The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries of their own, and that could have an effect as well.

Over 46.5 Points (-110)

This isn’t your traditional short-week Thursday game as both teams played on Thanksgiving Day last week. Typically, I would be excited to jump on taking the under with fewer days of preparation. One thing I failed to mention in the Saints blurb is that the spread may be coming down because of the possible availability of Alvin Kamara. He did log back-to-back days of limited practices and that’s the most hopeful news that New Orleans has received on its star back in weeks.

I was impressed by the Cowboys’ offense last week even without WRs Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In any event, we should see plenty of points in what I could see being a 27-24 type of game.

Tre’Quan Smith – Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Smith got off to a late start this season because of an injury. His first three games weren’t really that great either, but Smith got back into the groove over the last three with 13 catches on 20 targets, 139 yards, and a touchdown. Obviously, those numbers aren’t lighting the world on fire. Yet, they show a very talented receiver getting more efficient with his opportunities.

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