EPL Picks - Gameweek 18 - Find Value From Chelsea And City This Week
The two scheduled fixtures on Sunday bring together away sides who will qualify for the Champions League next season and were in the draw for the last 16 and opponents who need the points to lessen their relegation worries.
UEFA are an organization with huge wealth but got things badly wrong and as far as I can tell Chelsea plays Lille and Manchester City meet Sporting Lisbon in the first knockout round of the Champions League.
However, those ties are played in February so both clubs can focus on the Premier League. We just can’t ignore Chelsea and Manchester City at Wolves and Newcastle on Sunday so the two giants have to be our Premier League picks.
Top Value EPL Picks For Gameweek 18
Wolves vs Chelsea
EPL Betting Pick - Chelsea to beat Wolves at (-182)
|Wolves to win||+525|
|Chelsea to win||-182|
An old sage once told me never back teams playing away who are odds-on. However, the importance of home advantage has lessened so you cannot ignore the obvious. Chelsea are five places and 13 points above Wolves in the table. The London club have a superior goal difference by 28 goals over 17 fixtures, which works out at an average of 1.65 goals per match.
The same difference is 14 in favor of Chelsea when they play away and Wolves play at home. Liverpool have won their last six matches in the Premier League and Manchester City have not dropped a point in seven fixtures. Chelsea have dropped off the pace after a defeat and draw in their last four league matches.
They cannot afford to let that inconsistency continue which means even at odds-on they must be backed on the road at Wolves. Wolves have won just three of eight home fixtures, scoring only five goals and conceding seven. Just 10 of their tally of 24 points have been won at home and that total is expected not to increase when Chelsea visit Molineux on Sunday.
Newcastle vs Man City
EPL Betting Pick – Man City to beat Newcastle at -2 on the spread at (+135)
|Newcastle to win||+1300|
|Man City to win||-625|
The claims of Manchester City winning on the road at Newcastle are stronger than Chelsea’s prospects in Wolverhampton. Any team that scores seven goals in a Premier League fixture cannot be opposed when they next play. The home win over Leeds was facile and continues City’s outstanding run. They can carry on scoring by beating Newcastle by more than two goals. Newcastle have just won one of 17 matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding 37.
City have picked up 19 points on their travels from eight matches, finding the net 15 times and letting in six at the other end. Liverpool and Chelsea have won the same number of points on the road but have a better goal difference in by 10 and three goals respectively. City are the banker bet of the weekend and the best way to back them is giving Newcastle a two-goal start. It would not be a major surprise if they scored four goals or more in two successive fixtures.