The AFC Championship Game gives us a fantastic matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. There were no other teams in the NFL that had more total yards per game than these two- KC: 415.8/gm, BUF: 396.4 but the weather could rain on the parade of a potential shootout. Regardless, we should still see an exciting game.
More importantly, KC is still defending its Super Bowl title from last season.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 24, 2021
6:40 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Weather: mid-40s, 40% chance of rain
The Chiefs have been installed as three-point favorites (-3) with -170 moneyline odds to win the game outright while the Bills have +150 odds to win outright. In addition, the total is currently set at 54 points.
Betting Pick: Bills ML (+150)
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had a rough game against the Cleveland Browns last week, not only getting that devastating concussion but also hurting his toe earlier in the game. I don’t feel like Mahomes will be at 100% in this game, thus paving the way for a Bills upset.
Josh Allen continues to silence the critics, with his latest shot being a 17-3 win over the experienced Baltimore Ravens. It wasn’t long ago that Allen was passed up in the 2018 NFL Draft by guys like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, and now he’s in the AFC Championship Game before them.
Allen will likely have a strong day connecting with WR Stefon Diggs but I think the key to victory here is the running of RB Devin Singletary. After barely being used in the first half, Singletary had some nice runs to get things for Buffalo. If the coaching staff knows what’s good for the team, it better get Singletary going early and often. This looks like a kid that is hungry for the football.
The Bills’ defense has really been a pleasant surprise late in the season. With Mahomes a bit dinged up for this game, expect a lot of pressure to thrown at him in confusing manners to try and force some turnovers.
KC did gash Buffalo for a season-high 245 yards on the ground when the two teams met back in Week 6. Getting that aspect under control will certainly be a big priority.
In terms of the total, it’ll all come down to the weather. As of now, there’s a 40% chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday night. If that’s the case, it’ll be the second time these teams faced each other in the rain this season.