In this article, we’ll give you our top NFL picks for Week 9 of the season. The best three matchups include the Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers & New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers – Total: 42
Sunday, November 3, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
NFL Week 9 Pick: Colts (-1.5)
The Indianapolis Colts bring their 5-2 record to Heinz Field a meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-4. This is a matchup of teams that lost their star quarterbacks either before the season or early on. The Colts were put in a better position afterward, and that’s a reason why they’re our top NFL week 9 pick is to cover the one-point spread. Let’s look at the factors of why we’re heading down that road.
NFL Week 9 Betting Lines Analysis: Colts at Steelers
We’ve got plenty of agreement on the Colts with more than two-thirds of bets in their favor. This line initially opened with the Steelers as one-point favorites but then swung in the opposite direction with so much favoritism. Perhaps, everyone isn’t convinced the Steelers can put it together for the second straight week at home.
The Colts squeaked out a win at home against the Broncos, and that comes a week after a strong win against the Texans. When Andrew Luck retired, many people thought Indy wouldn’t be a relevant team. But they are 5-2 and there’s still a strong roster put together here, especially up front on the D- and O-lines.
QB Jacoby Brissett has been solid for most of this season, throwing 14 TD-3 INT. He does, however, need to improve upon some of these recent performances. In the games before and after Brissett’s big game against the Texans, he didn’t throw a TD in either one. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (205.1) in the NFL. It might be much easier to move the ball with RB Marlon Mack on the ground, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
The Steelers are coming off a win in which they were down 14-0 early to the lowly Dolphins. We really can’t take a lot from that win and apply it to Sunday’s game. After all, struggling QB Mason Rudolph threw for 251 yards and two touchdowns; that will be a lot harder to do against a Colts’ defense that has allowed under 20 points in two of the last three games.
RB James Conner could miss this game with a shoulder injury, and that would certainly be a huge loss. Fellow RB Benny Snell is doubtful for this game but Jalen Samuels is slated to return. That would at least give the Steelers some level of competence in the backfield.
NFL Week 9 Pick: Colts (-1)
With the 42-point total, we’re probably going to see a grind-it-out type of game that doesn’t have many big plays. If that’s the case, the Colts are well-equipped to play that style with Mack and their stable of RBs. Indy is 4-2-1 ATS this season, giving us a little more confidence with this team in big spots.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers – Total: 48
Sunday, November 3, 2019 – 4:25 p.m. EST
NFL Week 9 Pick: Over 48
The Green Bay Packers take their impressive 7-1 record on the road to face the Los Angeles Chargers at 3-5. With two of the most productive QBs in football, we should see plenty of moving up and down the field. Our top NFL week 9 pick is for the total to go over 48 points. Let’s look at some reasoning in going that route.
NFL Week 9 Betting Lines: Packers at Chargers
This line seems odd, being that the Packers are a much better team. That’s why we’ve seen nearly 90 percent of public bets and all money wagered heading in their favor. Because of this, we’re inclined to believe the Chargers will score some points and that’s why our top betting pick is the total going over 48 points. There’s also lots of love for the over, with about 83 percent of public bets and all money wagered going that route. That is a reason why we’ve seen the opening total of 46 jumping up to 48.
This game will feel more like Lambeau Field West rather than a road matchup with the Cheeseheads making the trip out to NFL fans’ favorite vacation spot. QB Aaron Rodgers has the second-most passing yards (2,324) and passing TDs (16) with only two interceptions. Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has thrown for eight TDs and a total of 734 yards. It should be a fantastic matchup against a Chargers team that is allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (217.4). Although, it should be noted that the Chargers have faced some of the worst QBs in the NFL in each of their last five games.
WR Davante Adams should return for this matchup against the Chargers. That will be a nice addition to compliment the big plays of RB Aaron Jones lately. When these two are clicking together, it’s nearly impossible to stop this Packers’ offense.
QB Philip Rivers is right behind Rodgers in third place with 2,315 passing yards. However, Rivers hasn’t been as careful with the ball and that’s been a big reason why the Chargers have a losing record. This is one of the most prideful teams in the NFL, and you have to believe they’ll show out offensively and match the other side every step of the way.
RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are now back together as a tandem. One underrated factor of the total going over is that the Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt earlier this week. With a new mind calling the plays, expect them to have some fun and possibly even bring some of the trick-plays out of their back pocket. While the Packers’ defense started out strong this season, they have not been the same dominant unit since Week 4.
NFL Week 9 Pick: Over 48
These are two of the top three teams in getting get their RBs involved in the passing game. Expect that to play a big part in keeping the chains moving and give us a lot more chances to hit the over. With Rodgers’ current form and the Chargers getting a new play-caller, we should have lots of fun watching this one on Sunday.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens – Total: 45
Sunday, November 3, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
NFL Week 9 Pick: Ravens (+3.5)
And now for the main event! This will be an epic battle as the New England Patriots take their undefeated 8-0 on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens (5-2). These two teams are no stranger to facing each other in the past, meeting in the postseason numerous times. Because of the schematics, our top NFL week 9 pick will be for the Ravens to cover the 3.5-point spread.
NFL Week 9 Betting Lines: Patriots at Ravens
It’s not surprising but 70 percent of public bets are coming in on the Patriots, while it’s an even 50-50 mark of all money wagered on the Ravens. The Patriots are naturally one of the most-bet teams by the public. After all, they do nothing but win year after year. All that is fine and dandy, but the Ravens definitely have the personnel to give the Patriots their first loss of the season.
QB Tom Brady hasn’t looked flawless in recent weeks. That could be attributed to different injuries to WRs and a lack of options at the TE position. Or perhaps, Brady is losing some of his allure. It’s not like the Patriots have been playing a lot of quality teams either. Their opponents have a combined 31 percent winning percentage, which is second-worst in the AFC behind the Bills.
Obviously, the defense is what’s carrying the Patriots right now. But they haven’t faced an offense quite like the Ravens yet. Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick has struggled with some of these ‘gimmick’ offenses before. We think that can certainly happen once again.
The Ravens have the horses up front to make life difficult on the Patriots’ defense. Yes, the same Patriots’ defense is putting up 30 points per week in your fantasy leagues. Baltimore doesn’t need to throw the ball much to win this game. In fact, it’s an offense that wants to throw it as little as possible. The Ravens’ offense has the most rushing yards (204.1) and second-most total yards per game (434.9).
NFL Week 9 Pick: Ravens (+3.5)
Let’s keep it simple and take the points we’re getting on the Ravens. It’s very tempting to take them on the moneyline, but we should always take points against the Patriots whenever we get them. We won’t be surprised at all if the Ravens are able to win this outright, especially coming off the bye week.