In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting picks and advice for the Week 6 Thursday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
Week 6 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a matchup between the 5-0 New England Patriots hosting the 2-3 New York Giants. The Patriots get to face another inferior opponent, and they’ve had great success with that thus far. That’s why our top betting pick is for the Patriots to cover the huge 16.5-point spread against the Giants. Let’s dig into the facts and figures to see why we’re heading in this direction.
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-16.5) – O/U: 41.5
Thursday, October 10th, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
TNF Betting Pick: Patriots (-16.5)
TNF Week 6 Betting Lines: Patriots at Giants
The Patriots opened at -14 but have since jumped up to -16.5. A lot of this has to do with key injuries to Giants’ offensive players, but also the fact that this was already a big mismatch as it is. We agree with nearly everyone betting on this game, as 76 percent of public bets/86 percent of all money wagered is in favor of the Patriots covering the 16.5-point spread.
There will be severe weather conditions on Thursday night, with 15+ mph winds and quite a bit of rain falling. Because of this, we’ve seen the total drop heavily from 46 all the way down to 41.5. The sharp folks know this, as 73 percent of all money wagered on the total is coming in on the under.
Giants Betting Form
Unfortunately, Eli Manning won’t be under center against the Patriots – and this isn’t the Super Bowl. Sorry, Giants fans. New York heads to Foxborough without RBs Saquon Barkley/Wayne Gallman, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram playing. So yeah, there’s no chance in hell that they come away with a win – let alone have any sort of offensive attack.
To make matters even worse, the Giants’ defense is allowing the third-most yards per game (409.4). We know this unit has a tough matchup but the weather should make it somewhat easier. Let’s not get carried away, though, as the running- and short-range passing attacks could still give them plenty of trouble.
After all, the Giants are facing the most successful team over the last two decades on a short week of preparation, and there’s a huge coaching mismatch in this one – in favor of the Patriots.
Patriots Betting Form
With the weather conditions being less than ideal, you’d think that’d be a rough spot for a team – but not the Patriots. Tom Brady is one of the best bad-weather quarterbacks the game has ever seen, so moving the ball shouldn’t be too difficult. Granted, we’re not expecting him to throw for 400+ yards. However, New England’s running game should open up spots against a Giants defense that is allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (279.4) this season. Look for RBs Sony Michel and James White to play a big part in this game one way or another.
Currently leading the NFL in sacks (24) and turnovers created (12). The Patriots’ defense has been incredibly tough on opposing defenses this season. In addition, they’re allowing the fewest total yards per game (239) and total points (34) through five games. Need we say anymore?
TNF Week 6 Betting Pick: Patriots (-16.5)
We legitimately have no idea how the Giants will move the ball in this game. The weather might keep it close, but that’s the equivalent of wishing on a shooting star. Look for the Patriots’ defense to create a few turnovers to give Brady & Co. favorable field-position opportunities for touchdowns.
The 16.5-point spread is key here. The Patriots need to do just a little more than beat the Giants by two touchdowns. We think they’ll have no problem in doing so.