If you’ve been following along my offseason preview series thus far, we’ve already covered both the AFC Championship odds and NFC Championship odds for the 2021-2022 NFL Season. Now, it’s time for the logical next—and final—step in that team-based analysis: the odds to win the Super Bowl in 2022. Using the same format as the championship series articles, let’s get into it.
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
Outright (Heavy) Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs (+500, 16% implied odds)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600, 14% implied odds)
Unsurprisingly, at most NFL betting sites, the two heavy favorites for next year’s Super Bowl are last year’s Super Bowl representatives as well as being this year’s favorites to win the AFC and NFC crowns, respectively.
Since we’ve already dove into the specifics for both the Chiefs and the Buccaneers in their conferences’ previews, let’s focus on the question: would they be more or less expected to win the Super Bowl than a 50/50 shot, given that they advance?
In this case, I believe both teams would be clear odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl—as long as they didn’t face each other once again. (The Bucs were favored over the Chiefs last season, but that was likely because the Chiefs lost the majority of their starting offensive line and had to play the Bucs on their home turf. Considering all of these variables, another Kansas City-Tampa Bay Super Bowl would likely be even closer to a 50/50 proposition than last year.)
If you consider the provided odds of each team winning their conference, it seems that the Chiefs are implicitly given about 55% odds of winning the Super Bowl should they advance, and the Buccaneers 56% odds. That’s more or less what you’d expect, so let’s see if there are better values further down this list.
Super Bowl Odds 2022
|NFL Teams||Super Bowl Odds 2022 by PointsBet|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+600|
|Green Bay Packers||+1100|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1300|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1500|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3300|
|New England Patriots||+3300|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000|
|Washington Football Team||+5000|
|las Vegas Raiders||+7000|
|New York Giants||+7000|
|New York Jets||+12500|
Expert Super Bowl Predictions
Best Value Pick: Baltimore Ravens, +1400 (7% implied odds)
Heading into this exercise, I assumed that our top Conference Championship Week value plays would remain enticing for the Super Bowl. All things considered, however, only one of our two “Value Pick” teams—John Harbaugh’s Ravens, not Matt LaFleur’s Packers—made the cut to retain that title.
There are several factors which seem to make Baltimore a smart play. First of all, if the Ravens are emerging as the AFC’s champion, that means they’ve already faced and defeated the best of their conference. This is important for two reasons. The immediately obvious reason is they won’t have to face the Kansas City Chiefs—the NFL’s top team—in the Super Bowl.
Just as importantly, however, the fact the Ravens make it to the Super Bowl means that they’ve figured out the best way to deploy Lamar Jackson and the rest of their team in the playoffs. With Jackson at the helm, their old school style of offense is essentially a unicorn in the modern NFL. When it comes to unicorns, they often either do very well or completely crash and burn—as seen by the contrast within the Ravens’ last two regular season and playoff performances. If they advanced to the Super Bowl, the 2021-2022 Ravens are highly likely to have trended toward the former—and if that’s the case, opponents better watch out.
At just +1400 despite +650 AFC Championship odds, the Ravens are only assumed to be about a 50/50 shot at winning the Super Bowl should they advance, which is one of the lowest marks available.
If you’re already on the Ravens ride with me, stay on for The Big Game—it could prove fortuitous.
Overpriced Play: Cleveland Browns, +1400 (7% implied odds)
Given how well-positioned the Ravens are to succeed in 2021, the natural team to fade is their biggest in-division rival, the Browns. Although I have great respect for the Browns’ team leadership and the roster they’ve built around the impressive Baker Mayfield, there are several variables that make me bearish at their +1400 price tag.
Biggest among these variables, of course, is the fact that the Ravens are on track to soar this season, which would only make it more difficult for the Browns to win the division or even simply make the playoffs—which, obviously, is important if you plan to bet on them to both make and win the Super Bowl. Secondly, based on the Browns’ +800 odds of winning the AFC, they would have to be at least 60% Super Bowl favorites should they make the Big Game, which is one of the highest implied marks in the league.
This is simply a case of a good team with too high of a price tag. If you’re really looking for someone from the AFC North to win it all, all you need to do is keep it simple and back the division’s favorite.