TNF Player Props – NE Patriots at LA Rams

Week 14 of the NFL season opens up with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the New England Patriots, who are playing their second game in LA over the last four days. On Sunday, Patriots walloped the Los Angeles Chargers by the score of 45-0 while the Rams took care of business on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, winning 38-28.

This game has potential to be a good one, with LA sitting at 8-4 and New England at 6-6. The Rams favored by five points (-5) and a moneyline number of -245 to win outright; +205 for the Patriots. The total on this game is set at 44.5 points.

In this article, I will identify the three best player props bets in the marketplace. The odds in this article are brought to you by William Hill Sportsbook.

Patriots+5 (-110)+205
Rams-5 (-110)-245

Robert Woods (LA Rams)

  • Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
  • Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

We always have to make the choice between Woods and Cooper Kupp when deciphering which Rams WRs will have the most production. Based on game theory (in this case, a convincing LA win), I’d expect Woods to be that guy tonight. After all, Kupp makes more sense in a game the Rams would be behind on the scoreboard.

Woods has looked great since the start of November, topping 80 yards in four of the last five games. He had a similar upward trajectory at the end of last season, so there’s plenty of optimism to believe another one is coming up in 2020.

James White (NE Patriots)

  • Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
  • Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

I’m pretty confident in the Rams winning this game comfortably. If that happens, White would get a ton of snaps in obvious passing situations- a setting he’s thrived in during Patriots’ losses.

Here’s a look at how White does in the Patriots’ wins and losses:

In wins                       

MatchupJames White Stats
09/13, vs. MIA3 rec, 3 tgt, 30 yds
11/09, @ NYJ4 rec, 5 tgt, 24 yds
11/15, vs. BAL2 rec, 2 tgt, 8 yds
11/29, vs. ARZ1 rec, 1 tgt, -1 yd
12/06, @ LAC3 rec, 4 tgt, 1 yd

In losses

MatchupJames White Stats
10/05 @ KC7 rec, 8 tgt, 38 yds
10/18 vs. DEN8 rec, 9 tgt, 65 yds
10/25 vs. SF1 rec, 1 tgt, 3 yds
11/01 @ BUF2 rec, 4 tgt, 35 yds
11/22 @ HOU6 rec, 9 tgt, 64 yds

Patriots QB Cam Newton has not even reached 100+ passing yards in each of the last two games- both wins. However, in a looming situation like this, he’ll need to get busy in the passing game. White will be there more than enough times to capitalize on the game flow.

Darrell Henderson Jr.

  • Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Cam Akers is currently listed questionable for this game but is expected to play. Nevertheless, Henderson is going to get plenty of opportunities to carry the rock against a New England defense that has the fifth-worst run defense DVOA.

Henderson’s carries have certainly gone down since Akers established himself as the main guy in LA’s backfield. However, I believe there are more than enough chances to go around for the trio- if you include Malcolm Brown.

While Henderson may only get maxed out at 10 carries, he just needs to not screw up. Look for him to get most of these yards in the second half when the Rams are playing a ball-control offense.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer