Now that the Thursday game is out of the way, it’s time for a loaded Week 9 slate of NFL action. The matchups are plentiful this week, with many players on advantage positions against porous defenses. We’ll have to make a choice, though – and that’s what I’m here to do.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the RB prop bets market. As usual, the odds are provided by William Hill. Don’t forget, new customers can claim $500 in risk-free bets with the William Hill Promo Code TS500.
The matchups going under the microscope:
- Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) at Kansas City Chiefs
- James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Dallas Cowboys
- Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Prop Bets Watch:
- Rushing Yards: Over 50.5 yards (-115)
- Receiving Yards: Over 33.5 yards (-115)
- Receiving + Rushing Yards: Over 88.5 yards (-115)
We don’t have any prop numbers for McCaffrey just yet, but he is expected to be activated for the Panthers ahead of Sunday’s game. Fantasy owners, rejoice! Your main man is back to save the day.
McCaffrey is basically a do-it-all machine for Carolina, compiling loads of yards on the ground and through the air – and it’ll be needed against KC. The Chiefs, themselves, have given up plenty of rushing production this season. You can see below:
But let’s not also forget how dynamic McCaffrey can be in the passing game. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater is the master of the check down, typically looking to go short, and the Chiefs do have the seventh best DVOA pass defense while allowing the third fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility for McCaffrey to get a lot of looks in his first game back.
James Conner (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Cowboys’ run defense has allowed a league-high 170.9 yards per game this season, and things have specifically been awful of late. This season, they have allowed individual rushing performances (chronologically) of: 79, 61, 64, 71, 95, 60, 164, 128, 70.
Aside from two very tough matchups against the Eagles and Ravens, Conner has been fantastic with rushing totals of 106 (vs. DEN), 109 (vs. HOU), 101 (vs. CLE), 82 (@ TEN).
This Dallas team is going to be on its fourth QB of the season, meaning that the offense will be a disaster. If that is the case, and they don’t have the ball for big stretches, that means Conner & Co. will have more of an emphasis on the running game.
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Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST | Watch: NBC
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Prop Bets Watch:
- Rushing Yards: Under 46.5 (-115)
- Receiving Yards: Over 43.5 yards (-115)
Yes, I’m going under. The Buccaneers have the NFL’s No. 1 rushing defense, allowing 70.4 yards per game. Last week, the Giants were ran all over them, so I would expect the Bucs’ defensive line to come out with a very spirited performance against Kamara and the Saints.
The 51 total on this game, which started at 55.5, lends some optimism to the fact that we’ll see a low scoring game; and I believe that has to do with the Saints. It couldn’t possibly be the Bucs, who will now add WR Antonio Brown to an offense that already has Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, in addition to Chris Godwin maybe returning.
Running the football at Tampa Bay rarely produces good results, so if New Orleans is trailing early in this game (like I think it will) it would mean more passing and less rushing. Because of that, taking Kamara receiving prop bets would be a much better idea.