2021 NFL MVP Odds: Who Will Win NFL MVP?

With the majority of the summer behind us, we’re closer than ever to the settings, sights, and sounds of the fall yet again—cool nights, colorful leaves, and NFL football. And while the season opener is still several weeks away, the NFL betting market never sleeps. This is especially true for the league’s most prestigious award: MVP. With plenty of time before the kickoff of Week 1, there remain plenty of overvalued and undervalued picks for who will win NFL MVP.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the 2021 NFL MVP Odds as well my top NFL MVP predictions for the award. So without further ado, let’s dive right in.



Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL MVP Odds 2021

2021 MVP Favorites


One glance at the MVP odds this year shows a relatively spread-out field. Aside from Patrick Mahomes at +475 and Aaron Rodgers at +800 (the 2019 and 2021 winners), no other player has odds better than +1200. And for good reason: being so violent yet so brief, an NFL season is loaded with volatility and surprises. That’s why a betting favorite may not return value, and conversely, why a long shot (like Rodgers at +2500 last year) may make sense. 


This year, however, the situation is slightly different, as the NFL has added a 17th game to the schedule. On the one hand, this increases the odds that a frontrunner gets injured, which would spread out the field even more.

On the other hand, however, it gives frontrunners a chance to extend their lead in the race. Additionally, it gives players with early-season injuries a chance to make up ground.

Altogether, the difference will likely be minimal, but it does reinforce one common theme: don’t get too cute. Sure, betting on a former MVP winner like Aaron Rodgers made sense at +2500 last year, but an extra game will make it even more difficult for a fresh-on-the-scene player to outduel the Rodgers’ and Mahomes’ of the league for a whole season.

Now that we’ve hashed out the landscape, here’s a look at players of note. 

NFL MVP Predictions


Undervalued: Patrick Mahomes, +475 (17% implied odds) 

For as long as he’s young and healthy, the MVP conversation will always start with Kansas City superstar Patrick Mahomes. Hence, why he leads the 2021 NFL MVP odds.

Despite only having 1 MVP thus far, the ketchup fanatic remains the gold standard at QB. For his career, Mahomes averages 44.2 total touchdowns per 17 games played. Better yet, his 6.8% touchdown rate is the best all-time since 1970. Oh, and as icing on the cake, Mahomes had the lowest qualified interception rate in football last year (1%). The Texas Tech product truly has no weaknesses in his game. This year, it will again take an elite season to wrestle the award away from him. In 2019, Mahomes lost to Lamar Jackson, who amazingly led the league in passing TD and rushed for 1200 yards—a feat unlikely to be repeated. In 2020, Aaron Rodgers tossed 48 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions—the best since Mahomes threw 50 in 2018. Even in an average year for him, Mahomes would still receive plenty of MVP consideration.

Plus, there’s reason to believe things will be even better in 2021. After seeing his franchise QB constantly under siege in the Super Bowl, GM Brett Veach has worked to make Mahomes’ life easier going forward.

Since their loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, the KC front office invested a first-round pick and nearly $90 million into shoring up the offensive line while returning virtually all WR, RB, and TE of consequence. Granted health, Mahomes is a much stronger bet than 17% to take the crown once again.

Overvalued: Any Non-QB

As another logical extension of the “don’t get too cute” takeaway from the intro, it makes even less sense to bet money on any sort of RB, WR, or defensive player to win MVP this year. 

Even before considering the changed NFL landscape, only one non-QB (RB Adrian Peterson in 2012) has won in 14 years! Now, you may think, players such as Derrick Henry (+3000) and Christian McCaffrey (+4000) may make sense, as their implied odds are still much lower than 1 in 14. Given the alluded-to changes, however, even those odds are unlikely to return you a profit.

First off, the NFL has collectively become much more analytically-oriented over the past several years. As many cutting-edge analysts now proclaim, great running backs (and other non-QBs) are much less valuable than even decent QBs. This is further supported by rising QB salaries, rising QB draft capital, and the increased reliance on passing in modern football. It’s simply a quarterback’s league.

Plus, now with the 17th game (which exposes players at the more violent positions to even more injury risk and gives QBs a chance to get off even more attempts), that value gap will likely widen even more. 

Instead of throwing money on a Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey, perhaps take a chance on a young, high-ceiling QB such as Joe Burrow (+5000), or pony up for a player who’s posted MVP-level production before, such as Dak Prescott (+1800). 

However, if you fancy Christian McCaffrey to have a big season as we do. Check out our NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award preview.

Odds To Win NFL MVP 2021


NFL PlayerNFL MVP Odds 2021 at William Hill
Patrick Mahomes+475
Aaron Rodgers+800
Josh Allen+1200
Lamar Jackson+1400
Tom Brady+1400
Kyler Murray+1800
Dak Prescott+1800
Matthew Stafford+1800
Russell Wilson+2000
Justin Herbert+2000
Tua Tagovailoa+3000
Ryan Tannehill+3000
Derrick Henry+3000
Matt Ryan+3500
Carson Wentz+3500
Baker Mayfield+3500
Christian McCaffrey+5000
Deshaun Watson+5000
Joe Burrow+5000
Derek Carr+5000
Jalen Hurts+6000
Kirk Cousins+6000
Dalvin Cook+6000
Jameis Winston+6000
TJ Watt+8000
Ben Roethlisberger+8000
Cam Newton+8000
Aaron Donald+8000
Devante Adams+8000
Trevor Lawrence+8000
Drew Lock+8000
Michael Thomas+8000
Chase Young+10000
Daniel Jones+10000
George Kittle+10000
Jared Goff+10000
Saquon Barkley+10000
Khalil Mack+10000
JJ Watt+10000
Cam Akers+10000
DeVonta Smith+10000
Alvin Kamara+10000
Travis Kelce+10000
DeAndre Hopkins+10000
Sam Darnold+10000
Jimmy Garoppolo+10000
Ezekiel Elliott+10000
Darren Waller+10000
Nick Chubb+10000
DK Metcalf+10000
Taysom Hill+12500
Justin FIelds+12500
Aaron Jones+15000
Calvin Ridley+15000
Jonathan Taylor+15000
Josh Jacobs+15000
Terry McLaurin+15000
Odell Beckham Jr+15000
Mike Evans+15000
Tyreek Hill+15000
JK Dobbins+15000
Joe Mixon+15000
Joey Bosa+15000
Julio Jones+15000
Justin Jefferson+15000
AJ Brown+15000
Teddy Bridgewater+15000
Antonio Gibson+15000
Find more odds on William Hill
Rich Torres
Rich Torres Sportswriter at US-Odds