2021 British Open Golf Odds Analysis, & Picks

Many golf fans across the world would consider the British Open as the best tournament for everyone, in that we’ll see some of the world’s best here — not just those that can make it to US soil. Last year’s version of the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it was Shane Lowry winning by six strokes in 2019. He, along with 100+ other golfers, will be looking to take home the trophy. Here are some of the top selections, based on 2021 British Open Golf Odds.

When looking at golfers this week, let’s keep the following stats in mind:

  • Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee
  • Strokes Gained Approach-The-Green
  • Putting Birdie or Better Percentage (Birdie or Better %)
  • Scrambling

Odds To Win 2021 British Open Championship

John Rahm+700
Bryson DeChambeau+1400
Dustin Johnson+1500
Rory McIlroy+1600
Xander Schauffele+1600
Brooks Koepka+1600
Justin Thomas+2000
Jordan Spieth+2000
Louis Oosthuizen+3000
Shane Lowry+3300
Tommy Fleetwood+3300
Patrick Cantlay+3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick+3300
Patrick Reed+3300
Tyrrell Hatton+3300
Paul Casey+3500
Viktor Hovland+4000
Scottie Scheffler+4000
Webb Simpson+4000
Lee Westwood+4000
Colin Morikawa+4000
Tony Finau+4500
Justin Rose+4500
Daniel Berger+5000
Cameron Smith+5500
Sergio Garcia+5500
Marc Leishman+5500
Branden Grace+5500
Joaquin Niemann+6000
Ian Poulter+6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+6000
Adam Scott+6600
Abraham Ancer+6600
Garrick Higgo+6600
Will Zalatoris+6600
Rickie Fowler+6600
Robert MacIntyre+6600
Lucas Herbert+7000
Phil Mickelson+7000
Harris English+7000
Jason Day+7000
Alex Noren+9000
Ryan Palmer+9000
Jason Kokrak+9000
Sam Burns+10000
Corey Conners+10000
Thomas Detry+10000
Matt Wallace+10000
Martin Kaymer+10000
Brian Harman+12500
Victor Perez+12500
Guido Migliozzi+12500
Danny Willett+12500
Min Woo Lee+12500
Stewart Cink+12500
Gary Woodland+12500
Bernd Wiesberger+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500
Russell Henley+12500
Padraig Harrington+12500
Billy Horschel+15000

Full list of odds provided by William Hill

2021 British Open Odds To Win Analysis

It is certainly intriguing to see Jon Rahm with the best odds (by far) of any golfer to win the British Open. Not necessarily him, in particular, rather how far the gap is between him and the next favored golfer. Rahm’s +700 odds are doubled by Bryson DeChambeau (+1400), and there’s a grouping of Dustin Johnson (+1500), Rory McIlroy (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Brooks Koepka (+1600).

Top Picks to Win 2021 British Open

Jon Rahm leads the 2021 British Golf Open Odds at +700.
Jon Rahm leads the 2021 British Golf Open Odds at +700.

Jon Rahm (+700)

Alright, let’s see what all of the fuss is about with these top-heavy odds. Rahm is coming off some impressive golf in recent weeks, with three Top-10 finishes in his last four outings. In lieu of those great finishes, Rahm does rank second in Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee, seventh in Strokes-Gained on Approach, and 14th on Birdie-or-Better %.

Justin Thomas (+2000)

JT has very strong ranks in Birdie-or-Better % (4th) and Strokes-Gained on Approach (5th). In his last three tournaments, Thomas has finished incrementally better, going T-42, T-19 and T-8. This feels like a weekend he can use that valuable experience in these majors to his advantage, whereas some players may tense up.

Tyrell Hatton (+3300)

I have been patiently waiting on a big Hatton finish at a major, so let’s hope the drama comes to an end this weekend. Hatton just finished with a T-18 at the Scottish Open last week, which was a nice bounceback after missing the cut at the US Open. Before that misnomer, he did finish second at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. Hatton’s advanced analytics are what’s really appealing here, as he ranks highly in all needed areas: Strokes-Gained on Approach (11th), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (20th), Birdie-or-Better % (31st), Scrambling (49th). Of course, the latter stat will need some improvements, but it does look like his game is starting to come around at the right time.

2021 British Open Golf Odds for Top American Player

Brooks Koepka+800
Dustin Johnson+900
Justin Thomas+1600
Jordan Spieth+1600
Xander Schauffele+2000
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Patrick Reed+3000
Colin Morikawa+3300
Patrick Cantlay+3300
Scottie Scheffler+3300
Daniel Berger+4000
Webb Simpson+4000
Harris English+4000
Will Zalatoris+4500
Rickie Fowler+4500
Phil Mickelson+5000
Jason Kokrak+5500
Sam Burns+5500
Ryan Palmer+5500
Garrick Higgo+6600
Will Zalatoris+6600
Jason Kokrak+9000

Full list of odds provided by William Hill

Odds Analysis for Top American Player

Brooks Koepka (+800) leads the way as the odds-on favorite to be the most successful American at the 2021 British Open; Dustin Johnson (+900) isn’t too far behind. Although, from there, it’s a huge dropoff from favorite to next-in-line: Justin Thomas (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+2000), Bryson DeChambeau (+2000). We can’t forget these names either: Patrick Reed (+3000), Colin Morikawa (+3300), Patrick Cantlay (+3300) and Scottie Scheffler (+3300). Keep in mind, these odds are to be the best-finishing American player in this tournament — not the tournament overall.

Pick for Top American Player

Patrick Cantlay's British Open Golf Odds of +3300 to be the Top American Player look great value.
Patrick Cantlay’s odds to be the top American player at +3300 is great value.

Patrick Cantlay (+3300)

The advanced metrics line up for Cantlay, in terms of the stats we need: Scrambling (2nd), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (14th), Strokes-Gained on Approach (25th), and Birdie-or-Better % (44th). Since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has turned in a T-23, first-place finish (Memorial Tournament), T-15, and T-15. Whatever struggles Cantlay was going through before that stretch, they are certainly over.

Daniel Berger (+3300)

Berger has some decent rankings where we need them: Strokes-Gained on Approach (14th), Birdie-or-Better % (26th), Strokes-Gained Off-the-Tee (37th), and Scrambling (57th). While those aren’t enough to make you run around in circles, we have to remember that Berger is due for a top finish soon. After all, he has finished in the Top-20 in four of the last six outings — this includes a T-7 at the US Open in mid-June and a T-3 at the AT&T Byron Nelson in mid-May.

Will Zalatoris (+6600)

Zalatoris has cooled off quite a bit since his hot start on tour, but I have no intentions of taking him lightly going forward. I have no fancy analytics or anything to bring forward, just pure gut feeling. Zalatoris did get a T-26 at the Scottish Open, giving him a little bit of familiarity with the play here across the pond. After some time away from the spotlight, the hope is that he has learned the ways of his mistakes. This was one of the top players on tour at the beginning of the year.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer