MLB Betting Preview: ARI D-backs @ OAK Athletics (8/20/20)
After twice falling to the Diamondbacks in Arizona, the Athletics look to return the favor with a two-game sweep of their own in Oakland. To do so, they will rely on 28-year-old lefty Sean Manaea. In hopes of leveling the series 1-1, the Diamondbacks will deploy second-year hurler Alex Young.
With that being said, what betting values are there for the taking? Let's take a look.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Oakland Coliseum - Oakland, CA - 9:40 PM ET
Game Info/Starting Pitchers:
ARI: Alex Young - L (Last Season: 3.56 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 0.6 WAR, 83.1 IP)
OAK: Sean Manaea - L (2018: 3.59 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 1.8 WAR, 160.2 IP)
Odds & Betting lines (DraftKings)
Total: 8.5 | Over: -121 | Under: +100
ARI| Moneyline: +140 | Run Line (+1.5): -157
OAK | Moneyline: -150 | Run Line (-1.5): +133
Shouldering the Load?
You may have noticed that Manaea's 2018 stats were mentioned. This is because the former 1st-rounder suffered an early-season shoulder injury in 2019. As a result, the results of the 29.2 innings he accrued last year are relatively insignificant.
What does matter, however, is Manaea's present day health. While he has admirably worked his way back to a big-league mound, there are reasons for concern. Primary amongst them is the velocity dip the Indiana native has suffered.
In his rookie season (2016), Manaea's fastball averaged 93.3 mph. That year, however, Manaea suffered his first left shoulder strain. Across the next two years, his velocity tumbled to 91 mph. Since returning from his second injury, Manaea has come dangerously close to 89 mph.
He has been getting stronger since his return, approaching 90.5 mph. Needless to say, however, we can't expect peak Manaea just yet.
ARI Moneyline (+140)
Building off of our Manaea concern brings us to the visitors' moneyline. While a recuperating Manaea is likely still better than Alex Young, it's not by very much. The same rings true for the two squads' lineups and bullpens. All in all, the two teams are too close to afford one side 58% odds of winning, home-field advantage and all. Unlike today's Brewers-Twins game, it is the home team receiving the bias.
It seems the market has caught on to this in terms of the spread, but the moneyline remains a good value.