Tuesday’s MLB slate has all 30 teams on it, but we’ll narrow down the best games to take advantage of. If you’re looking to catch any of tonight’s action on TV, you can find: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (7 p.m. EST, ESPN), Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (9:45 p.m. EST, ESPN+) and Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST, MLB Network).
Detroit Tigers (+125) at Kansas City Royals (-130) – Total: 8.5
DET: Casey Mize – R (3-4, 3.44 ERA/1.06 WHIP | 70.2 IP: 59 Ks, 11 HR) KC: Mike Minor – L (5-3, 4.50 ERA/1.15 WHIP | 74 IP: 81 Ks, 12 HR)
Typically, I like to end with the betting landscape, but starting there is most important. As of 12 p.m. EST, this is the game with the biggest differential of bets placed/money wagered – the Tigers are getting 62% of bets placed while the Royals are getting 65% of the money wagered.
Right there, I was ready to rock but Minor on the mound certainly helps as well. After a rough start to the season, the lefty has rebounded nicely, including spinning a seven-inning gem that saw him only allow three hits, one walk and one run while striking out eight. This should be a dream matchup, considering the Tigers have some of the worst numbers in all of MLB against left-handed pitching.
Mize had an incredible 1.74 ERA during the month of May but has come back down to Earth in his two recent starts, which were still considered “quality starts.” KC was the team that knocked him around the most, though, as he allowed seven hits, three walks and six runs over 4.2 innings.
Betting Pick: Royals ML (-130)
San Diego Padres (-255) at Colorado Rockies (+210) – Total: 11
SD: Yu Darvish – R (6-2, 2.28 ERA/0.91 WHIP | 79 IP: 92 Ks, 8 HR) COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez – R (2-4, 5.74 ERA/1.48 WHIP | 53.1 IP: 31 Ks, 9 HR)
This one is a little more expensive than I’d like, but the matchup is too good here. The Padres are back out on the West Coast and into the friendly hitting confines of Coors Field. They just got their leadoff hitter Trent Grisham back from injury, and he even homered last night. When he is in the lineup, this is a much more deadly team.
Darvish has been masterful this season, particularly in the setting we’ll see him in tonight – on the road and against the Rockies. He’s got a 2-0 record in four starts away from Petco Park, only allowing opposing hitters to post a .165 batting average against him. In addition, Darvish has pounced on Colorado, allowing only six hits, one walk and one unearned run in 11 total innings. Against current members of the current Rockies roster, they only have a combined .161 batting average, .192 on-base percentage and a strikeout rate just under 25%.
Looking at the betting landscape, the Padres are dominating the numbers. Just over 80% of bets placed and 88% of money wagered are heading that way.
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