Monday’s NBA Playoffs slate only has two games on it, but they will both be as intense as you can possibly imagine. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Miami Heat in Game 1 on the strength of a last-second shot from Khris Middleton. Out West, the Portland Trail Blazers pulled the slight upset over the Denver Nuggets. That means we’ve got two quality teams looking to even it all up.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) – Total: 222.5
About 2/3 of the public bets are on the Heat, with an even more breathtaking number at 90% of all money coming in on them. And it makes sense, considering we all saw how well Miami played in Game 1 against the Bucks, nearly winning outright. I won on my Hawks bet yesterday doing the exact opposite method, but I’m rolling with the money in this matchup.
Milwaukee hasn’t been particularly dominant as a home favorite (18-17 ATS) this season, and that record got a little worse down the stretch. While the Bucks have gone 31-12 SU against Eastern Conference opponents, they’re only 22-21 ATS in those same games. Of course, we always wonder if Giannis Antetokounmpo will be hitting his jump shot. If he’s off, it’ll make this matchup even tougher for Milwaukee.
Betting Pick: Heat (+4.5)
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-1.5) – Total: 227
After dropping two of three during the regular season against the Nuggets, the Trail Blazers ripped off an impressive 14-point victory in Game 1. That now makes Portland 5-0 ATS against Denver over the last five matchups.
I like the Trail Blazers to get it done once again tonight. This is a much better team on the road (24-13 ATS) than at home (15-21 ATS), and the spread for this matchup doesn’t indicate the Nuggets are going to kick some ass- I mean, this might as well be a toss-up number. It also doesn’t help that Will Barton and PJ Dozier still haven’t made their way back to the court.
For this game, I’ll keep it to just the side – no total. I’ve got all the faith in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, and there’s plenty of size on this team as well. This appears to be a tough mismatch for the Nuggets this time around, so we should see more of that tonight.
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