In this article, we’ll provide you our top college football betting picks for Week 13. These matchups include the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes, Texas A&M Aggies at Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears.
We’ll study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
8 Penn State Nittany Lions at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5) – O/U: 57
Saturday, November 23, 2019 – 12:00 p.m. EST
NCAAF Week 13 Pick: Over 57
The only matchup between ranked teams on Saturday takes place in Columbus. We’ll see the Penn State Nittany Lions hit the road to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. The 18.5-point spread leaves plenty of confusion on which way to go, so we’re taking it to the total. Our top betting pick is for this Penn State-Ohio State game to go over the total. Let’s dive into some numbers to make more sense of this pick.
NCAAF Week 13 Betting Lines Analysis: Penn State at Ohio State
We’re getting right around a 50/50 split on which team will cover the massive 18.5-point spread. However, it’s much more clear where bettors fall on the total. The over is getting absolutely hammered in this game, with nearly 85% of public bets and all money wagered going that route. And it makes perfect sense, considering the firepower on both offenses.
Penn State Form
QB Sean Clifford had a tumultuous week on social media following the loss to Minnesota. He followed that loss up with three total TDs (1 pass, 2 rush) in a seven-point win to Indiana. The Nittany Lions need to have success running the football in order to have a chance.
Penn State’s offense has scored at least 26 points in all but two games this season. Although Ohio State’s defense is allowing a nation-low 9.8 points per game, it hasn’t faced an offense like Penn State. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen this defense show small cracks against Maryland and Rutgers. Loo to see how that shakes out this week.
If Penn State ends up winning this game, that’s a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game over Ohio State. Not to mention, get itself closer to one of those four spots in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State Form
A lot of our love for the total going over has to do with Ohio State. This team has the most potent offense in the country, averaging 51.5 points per game. That’s 4.7 more than Alabama, which ranks second. The Buckeyes also rank fourth in total yards (541.7) and rushing yards (287.4) per game.
QB Justin Fields has been fantastic this season with a 31 TD-1 INT ratio. In addition, he’s even added 10 TDs and 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. We saw Penn State struggle against a high-powered Minnesota attack. And this Ohio State team is much more deadly.
DE Chase Young will return to the Buckeyes after a two-game suspension. Look for him to come out energized and possibly create a turnover or two in this game. Our hope is that he does this deep in Penn State territory, leading to great field position and easy scores for his team.
One thing to be weary about is Ohio State struggling to cover games before playing Michigan. We have no doubt that the offense will be firing on all cylinders. It’ll be interesting to see how the defense comes out.
NCAAF Week 13 Pick: Over 57
The last three PSU-OSU meetings have decided by a total of five points – each of the last two coming by one point. Penn State has a lot of motivation to stay relevant in the College Football Playoff rankings. Perhaps, they can even ruin Ohio State’s standing in the process.
The Georgia Bulldogs will look to keep their College Football Playoff standing against the visiting Texas A&M Aggies. This will only be the sixth time these two programs have ever met, with Georgia winning the last one back in 2009. Georgia’s defense is legendary, and that’s why our top betting pick is the total going under 45 points. Let’s dive into the numbers some more and look at some key points.
NCAAF Week 13 Betting Lines Analysis: Texas A&M at Georgia
While the public bets are right around 50/50, about 70% of all money wagered is on Georgia to cover the 13.5-point spread. However, the glaring difference in bets is coming on the total in this game. 74% of public bets and 98% of all money wagered is on the total going under. It’s hard to argue with those numbers. Georgia’s defense is amazing and the offense holds on to the ball. We should expect to see more of the same on Saturday.
Texas A&M Form
Much like Georgia, this Texas A&M team likes to control the clock and slow down the tempo. However, going up against this defense, the Aggies will need to get more creative – and we don’t think that’ll happen.
QB Kellen Mond is a guy that can make plays in a variety of ways. While that has worked for most of the season, it hasn’t against the perennial powers of college football. In games against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama, Mond and the Aggies’ offense have been held down. Against Clemson and Auburn, they scored 20 points or fewer; against Alabama, they scored 28 points, but the last eight came when the game was well out of reach.
We all know Georgia is going to run the football. It goes without saying, that needs to be Texas A&M’s focus heading into this one. It’s worth noting the Aggies defense has kept opposing QBs under a 50% completion percentage in each of the last four weeks. The Bulldogs’ deep backfield will certainly be able to wear the Aggies down.
The total has gone under in eight of Georgia’s 10 games this season, including each of the last five. We can attribute that to a stingy defense and strong running game. The Bulldogs have allowed the second-fewest points per game (10.5) and finally allowed their first rushing TD of the season last week.
QB Jake Fromm isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, but he’s not going to make mistakes either. In fact, Fromm has thrown three interceptions all season. Those all came in Georgia’s only loss this season – a three-point OT loss to South Carolina.
As we mentioned, it’s no secret that Georgia will come full steam ahead with the running game. Its talented trio of RBs is led by D’Andre Swift, who cracked the 1,000-yard mark last week.
On defense, the Bulldogs’ run-stopping has been incredible with an average of 75.5 yards allowed per game. In its last three games (at Auburn, vs. Missouri, vs. Florida), Georgia has allowed a combined 155 yards on the ground.
NCAAF Week 13 Pick: Under 45
We took the under in the Georgia game last week and there’s no reason to hop off the bandwagon. As we mentioned, 80% of its games have suffered that same fate. Texas A&M isn’t particularly one of these offenses that will start moving the ball. Look for this to be another slow-moving SEC game, and that’ll be just fine for us bettors of the under.
Texas Longhorns at #14 Baylor Bears (-5.5) – O/U: 59.5
Saturday, November 23, 2019 – 3:30 p.m. EST
NCAAF Week 13 Pick: Texas (+5.5)
After seeing their undefeated season go down the drain last week, the Baylor Bears will host the Texas Longhorns. Texas has won each of the last four meetings, with three of them coming by six points or fewer. Our top betting pick is for Texas to cover the 5.5-point spread on the road. Let’s look at the facts and figures to see why we’re heading in this direction.
NCAAF Week 13 Betting Lines Analysis: Texas at Baylor
The public bets are right down the middle at 50/50, while 60% of all money wagered is coming in on Texas to cover the 5.5-point spread. This is a pretty sharp line, considering Baylor has a better record. However, Texas has won the last four matchups and Baylor had its heart ripped right out of the chest last week. It’ll be tough to come out with a lot of motivation after seeing a possible spot in the College Football Playoff slip away.
Texas was supposed to take a big step going forward this season but the 6-4 record is not what fans were hoping for. It’s interesting to note, though, that those four losses have come by an average of 6.5 points. In order for Texas to earn a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game, it’ll need to win each of its last two games and also have Baylor lose both of their games and Iowa State lose one of its final two.
Oh, that’s all? Nonetheless, there is some motivation for this program to have some sort of relevance this season.
Texas does have a few key injuries to its receiving corps, and that could be an issue for a team averaging 300 yards per game through the air. We’re not entirely down on them, though, as this is a deep and talented group that can restock and reload. If anything, it gives some of these younger guys some confidence heading into next season.
Not only did Baylor lose a tight game last week, but it let a 28-3 first-quarter lead against Oklahoma drift away. We’re not sure how the Bears could ever pick themselves up off the ground for this game, especially with an in-state rival coming to town. And again, it’s not like Baylor was necessarily crushing its opponents into oblivion this season. This is a team that played a lot of close games against subpar competition.
Baylor is tied for first place in the conference and can clinch a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. In order to do so, they’ll need to beat Texas on Saturday or Kansas the following week. Knowing that it has that luxury against Kansas could very well keep them in a somber mood for this game.
NCAAF Week 13 Pick: Texas (+5.5)
Our pick isn’t so much about Texas winning this game by a convincing margin. Instead, we do think it’ll be a tight battle that comes down to the final whistle. In fact, both of these teams have four games over their last five that have been decided by seven points or less. With these two in-state schools going against one another, expect it to be a close battle.
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