The Week 5 NFL schedule wraps up on Monday Night Football with the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to face the New Orleans Saints. Luckily, Hurricane Delta didn’t cancel or change the venue for tonight’s game, so the show will go on as planned. The usually raucous Superdome will be noticeably different, especially in primetime, but the players will look to renew that sense of excitement.
In this matchup, the Saints have been installed as 6.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 49.5 points. New Orleans is looking to get above .500 with a win while a 1-3 Los Angeles team will look to get their first win under rookie QB Justin Herbert.
The odds in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Joshua Kelley – Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
If the Chargers want to get the rookie Kelley going, they’ll need to do it through the air. The Saints’ rushing defense ranks fourth in DVOA and sixth in yards per carry. In fact, New Orleans hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since the middle of the 2017 season.
Starting RB Austin Ekeler was injured in last week’s game and will miss the next 4-6 weeks. This means that Kelley and Justin Jackson will assume the Chargers’ backfield duties, with the latter not necessarily catching a ton of passes. Kelley will clearly be the guy getting the short passes from Herbert. Already sharing duties with Ekeler in the mix, Kelley has produced receiving-yard totals of 26 and 49.
We saw a similar situation last week as Packers RB Aaron Jones had massive -285 odds to score a touchdown at any point during the game… and he was the first one to do so. This week, we get Kamara at a zaftig -250 number to reach paydirt… and he too could have the same fate.
The Saints are already down WR Michael Thomas and TE Jared Cook is listed as questionable. On the other side, the Chargers have one of the best defenders in CB Casey Heyward. He will likely get matched up against either Emmanuel Sanders or Tre’Quan Smith.
Hunter Henry – Over 4.5 Receptions (+114) + 50.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
TEs have been the ones doing the most damage to the Saints this season. As you can see from the chart below, these teams have combined to give their defense plenty of headaches:
6 rec, 47 yds, TD
13 rec, 134 yds, TD
9 rec, 104 yds, 2 TD
3 rec, 40 yds, TD
Henry profiles well for this matchup, just as the ones who came before him. While he hasn’t reached the end zone yet this season, the numbers have been there: 18 receptions on 27 targets for 245 receiving yards). Given his stature in the offense, and the other miserable matchups for his teammates, Henry will be in a nice position to capitalize this evening.
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