In Week 6 of the NFL season, we’re going to take a different approach with our prop bets. This time around, we’ll take a look at the best value by position, rather than going through particular games that don’t have as much excitement (ahem, we’re looking at you, New York and Philadelphia). In hopes of doing this, we’ll try to find the absolute best value on the board.
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This is a great week to get started on this format with thrilling matchups all around the league. We’ll get a fantastic NFC battle as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and there’s also a compelling AFC divisional matchup between Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not to be forgotten, the best game of the week takes place on Monday, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go up against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
All of the props in this article are brought to you by William Hill.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
QBs: Baker Mayfield & Ben Roethlisberger
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Projected Weather: 64°F, calm
Props to Watch: TD passes, Completions/Attempts
This could very well end up being a sneaky shootout between the Browns and Steelers. Both teams are facing the highest percentage of passing plays – CLE: 67%, PIT: 68% – this season and the QBs are ready for all the hype. While Mayfield did throw two INTs against a stingy Colts team last week, he has thrown two TDs in each of the last four games. Roethlisberger has been straight-up money all season, throwing multiple TDs in all four of his games.
Baker Mayfield's QBR of 76.1 is 10th in the NFL, and best in the AFC North, beating Lamar Jackson (74.6) and Ben Roethlisberger (65.6). I recall Steelers fans angrily using QBR to defend some of Roethlisberger's past seasons, it's exciting to know that the stat clearly sucks, now
— Chris Mueller (@ChrisMuellerPGH) October 13, 2020
Neither guy has been necessarily throwing for a ton of yards, and that’s OK. Both defenses are fully capable of getting a timely turnover and making it a short field for their signal caller. I won’t try to play games with all of these passing yards, but it’s definitely doable for each guy to reach the mark in TD passes.
It’s also worth noting that as of this writing (Wednesday, 11 pm), 80% of the money is on the total going over 51 points.
Betting Pick:
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 TD Passes (-170)
Get Roethlisberger Over 1.5 TD Passes at William Hill
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
QBs: Kirk Cousins & Matt Ryan
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
US Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Projected Weather: Dome
Props to Watch: Passing Yards, Passing TDs
Only the Jaguars (8.7) have allowed more yards per pass than the Falcons (8.2), making them a prime candidate for Kirk Cousins to do some damage. In fact, four of the five starting QBs to face Atlanta this season have thrown for 300+ yards – the only one who didn’t was Mitchell Trubisky (128) of the Bears, who was then replaced by Nick Foles (188), meaning the two combined to surpass the 300-yard mark. How cool is math?
QBs vs Falcons this season:
— Al Walsh (@14AdotWalsh) October 15, 2020
Wk1) Russell Wilson – 322 yds
Wk2) Dak Prescott – 450 yds
Wk3) Trubisky/Foles – 316 yds
Wk4) Aaron Rodgers – 327 yds
Wk5) Teddy Bridgewater – 313 yds
Wk6) Kirk Cousins – ?????????????
This all lines up well for Cousins, and it also helps that his workhorse RB Dalvin Cook probably won’t be available for this game. Backup RB Alexander Mattison is certainly capable of handling these duties but it could eventually lead to more passes for Cousins.
Betting Pick:
Kirk Cousins – Over 290.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Get Cousins Over 290.5 Passing Yards at William Hill
More Expert Prop Bets
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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QBs: Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Projected Weather: 89°F, 25% rain, 10-15 mph winds
Props to Watch: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Completions/Attempts
Much like the Browns-Steelers game above, these two defenses see a lot of passing plays – Packers: 62.2%, Bucs: 64.3%. The difference here, though, is that we’ll be seeing two of the best QBs to ever play the game.
Rodgers has been absolutely fantastic this season, leading the Packers to a perfect 4-0 record. Individually in 2020, he has passing-yard/TD totals of 364/4 (@MIN), 240/2 (vs. DET), 283/3 (@NO) and 327/4 (vs. ATL) – all of that coming with no INTs on the year. This is setting up to be a monster day statistically for Rodgers, considering the Bucs own the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense. Teams have found out quite often over the years that passing the ball against Tampa is the way to go.
Highest-graded QBs since 2010:
— PFF (@PFF) October 14, 2020
1. Tom Brady – 97.3
2. Aaron Rodgers – 97.2
Sunday should be fun ? pic.twitter.com/KlrMtf1ByM
Brady hasn’t been quite as sharp this season but give the guy a break for working with a new offense. Due to possible inclement weather, we could see the GOAT have one of his remarkable games in the semi-slop. In Week 4, he did pass for five TDs against a very stout Chargers’ defense. Green Bay’s passing defense hasn’t been anything remarkable this season, allowing opposing QBs to pass for multiple TDs in three of the team’s four games.
Betting Picks:
Aaron Rodgers – Under 0.5 INTs (-220), Over 301.5 Passing Yds
Tom Brady – Over 1.5 TD Passes (-150)/Over 41.5 Passing Att (-125)
Get Rodgers Over 306.5 Passing Yards at William Hill
