In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting pick for the Week 4, with Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints. We’ll study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the bookie!
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – O/U: 47
Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Saints +2.5
Week 4 of the NFL schedule has quite a few solid matchups on the docket that make for several interesting betting opportunities, but one of our top betting picks is for the New Orleans Saints to cover the spread against the Dallas Cowboys. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below, to learn why this is our top betting tip.
Betting Lines Analysis: Cowboys at Saints
The Cowboys opened as -3.5 favorites but have since dropped all the way down to -2.5. We have seen the Cowboys grab 66 percent of public bets/61 percent of money wagered, so that is a big reason the movement is there. In addition, the total moved from 45 to 47, with 68 percent of public bets/94 percent of money wagered on the total going over.
Cowboys Betting Form
The Cowboys will face their biggest test of the season after winning their first three games – albeit against lesser opponents. So far, Dallas has outscored the likes of New York (Giants), Washington and Miami by a combined score of 97-44.
QB Dak Prescott has been the most integral part of the Cowboys’ offense, throwing for 920 yards and nine touchdowns. His success has led the offense, as a whole, to be a well-balanced machine with an average of 485.7 total yards per game – 306.7 passing, 179 rushing. It is, however, the passing game that could make the biggest difference as the Saints’ defense is allowing the third-most passing yards per game early on this season.
Saints Betting Form
While one signal-caller has been incredibly comfortable in his setting, the other is getting used to life as a starter once again. QB Teddy Bridgewater will start his biggest game in a Saints’ uniform as the Cowboys and their 3-0 record come to town. Last week in Seattle, Bridgewater leaned heavily on RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas, as they combined for nearly all of the offensive production.
The Saints’ defensive-front will need a repeat performance from last season’s matchup against the Cowboys, as they sacked Prescott seven times in a 13-10 loss. While the Saints’ defense hasn’t looked great this season, you have to expect these guys to rebound in a rawkus atmosphere at home in the Superdome. This is simply a much different team when playing in primetime under the roof, so that’ll certainly make things a bit more uncomfortable for Prescott.
Betting Pick: Saints +2.5
It just feels like the Saints’ defense is going to rebound in this one, as they’ve talked a lot about the motivation being ratcheted up with the Cowboys coming in. New Orleans kicker Will Lutz is one of the best in the business, connecting of 87 percent of kicks over his career. Look for that to be the difference in a tight battle that could come down to the final possession – with the Saints winning by three, of course.
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