In this article, we’ll provide you with our top NFL betting picks for Week 5. This week, the top games include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat New Jersey bookies.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) – O/U: 46.5
Betting Pick: Buccaneers +4.5
Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road for an important early-season NFC South showdown against the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are 2-2 ATS and actually defeated 3-0 squads each in their last game. So the winning side will prove a lot by winning this one. Our top betting pick is the Buccaneers to cover the three-point spread against the Saints. Let’s check out the numbers and see why we’re heading in this direction.
so the winning side will prove a lot by winning this one. Our top betting pick is the Buccaneers to cover the three-point spread against the Saints. Let’s check out the numbers and see why we’re heading in this direction.
Week 5 Betting Lines – Buccaneers at Saints
The public bets are split at 50/50 of who will cover the spread, but 68 percent of all money wagered is on the Buccaneers to do so. In addition, we’ve got a 50/50 split as well on the total, with 83 percent of all money wagered coming in on the under.
Buccaneers Betting Form
With two wins on the road and two losses at home, you’d think this is a perfect scenario for the Buccaneers. QB Jameis Winston turned in one of his best games as a pro last week against the Rams. He threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns. Tampa Bay will certainly have the opportunity to do so, with its plethora of receiving options. WR Mike Evans will draw a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore, so look for fellow WR Chris Godwin on the other side to have yet another big day in the process. The New Orleans’ secondary has struggled for most of the season and the Bucs should be able to take advantage of this.
The Bucs’ defense has been a pleasant surprise this season. Todd Bowles has brought a renewed sense of energy to a unit that was awful over the last few seasons. Bowles loves to blitz the QB, so look for that to continue and possibly create some turnovers which will give the Bucs some favorable field positions in this game.
Saints Betting Form
The Saints are 2-0 since Teddy Bridgewater took over at the helm, with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys. It won’t get any easier this week against a Bucs team looking to make a name for themselves. Luckily, when you have offensive weapons like RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas, you’ll at least have a shot to win the game.
New Orleans Saints’ defense finally showed up with a big performance in Week 4 against Dallas. The front-seven is starting to produce tons of pressure, and that’s where Saints can make a mark on this game. Given Winston’s history of making bad decisions under pressure. We’d expect the Saints to bring pressure on the QB all day.
Week 5 Betting Pick – Buccaneers +4.5
Something is off with the Saints, despite winning two straight games against quality opponents. When you watch them on offense, they’re not taking the same type of downfield risks as they did when QB Drew Brees was under center. We should see both teams bring a lot of pressure at the QB in this game, but we feel like the Bucs’ offense is a lot more equipped to deal with it.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) – O/U: 46.5
Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 4:25 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Under 47
The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers are a rivalry as old as time, and they’ll renew the hatred on Sunday. Both teams are 3-1 ATS/SU after the first four games, so it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top in this one. Our top betting pick is for the total to go under 47 points. Let’s dive into the facts and figures to see why this is our top betting pick.
Week 5 Betting Lines: Packers at Cowboys
The Packers are getting slightly more love here, with 57 percent of public bets/53 percent of all money wagered going in their direction. In addition, 53 percent of public bets/67 percent of all money wagered is on the total going under.
Packers Betting Form
QB Aaron Rodgers will likely be without his main weapon in WR Davante Adams. That’s alright though as there are plenty of others that can help the Packers get this win. WRs Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Geronimo Allison will have a much larger role, while TEs Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis should see an increase in snaps. RB Aaron Jones will have to handle some of the load and it’s about time that he gets going with the Packers 26th in rushing offense.
DT Montravius Adams missed the last two games, and the loss of his presence was certainly felt in last week’s game against the Eagles, who were able to run the ball with ease. The Packers’ defense was one of the best in football prior to his injury. So it puts a major spotlight on how they perform without him.
Also, the Packers had an extra three days to prepare and get healthy for this game while the Cowboys played the primetime Sunday night game on the road. That’s a huge advantage for Green Bay, so look for that to be a big key in this one.
Cowboys Betting Form
The Cowboys’ offense has much better numbers this season. However, it’s important to remember that they got their first three wins against the Eli-Manning-led Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins. When they finally faced a quality team, in the Saints. They only scored 10 points and looked very basic in the process.
A big hole for the Cowboys comes in the form of LT Tyron Smith, who will be out for this game. Not to mention, Dallas has two other offensive linemen (Zack Martin, La’el Collins) that are listed as questionable. If the Packers do indeed get Adams (the DT version), the matchup on the line will certainly be in favor of the Packers. We know the Cowboys want to run the ball with RB Ezekiel Elliott, but it’ll be a lot harder to do so if that scenario plays out.
One thing that has looked good is the Dallas defense. We expect them to turn in a big performance against a Green Bay offense that’ll be without its best weapon. No matter who the opponent has been this season, the Cowboys’ defense has always been the constant.
Week 5 Betting Pick: Under 47
There are a lot of key injuries for these teams, and that’ll likely slow this pace down a bit. We know Dallas wants to run the ball, but because of those ailments, it’ll be incredibly hard to do so. The Packers’ offense could certainly take a hit too with Adams (the WR) and the running game hasn’t been consistently great. All in all, we’re likely going to see a lot of offensive struggles and that’ll keep points off the scoreboard.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11) – O/U: 56
Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 8:20 p.m EST
Betting Pick: Over 56
We’ve got a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs emerged victorious with a 31-13 win, and that was even with the now-retired Andrew Luck at QB. There are a few key factors to look at in this game, but one of our top betting picks is for the total to go over 56 points. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in that direction.
Week 5 Betting Lines: Colts at Chiefs
The Chiefs are getting the love here, with 60 percent of public bets/66 percent of all money wagered. In addition, 61 percent of public bets/58 percent of all money wagered is on the total going over.
Colts Betting Form
The matchup of the Colts’ offensive line against the Chiefs’ defensive line is one that’ll bode well for the offense. This should allow Indy to move the ball against a KC defense that is getting shredded as always. Last week, the Lions moved the ball at will and if it weren’t for some costly turnovers in the red zone, we probably wouldn’t be talking about the Chiefs as one of the remaining undefeated teams.
One thing to keep an eye on, though, is the health of RB Marlon Mack and WR T.Y. Hilton. Both are listed as questionable with the hope of playing, and that would certainly help the offense a ton.
On defense, the Colts (and every other team) might as well say a prayer before taking the field against the Chiefs’ potent offense. There is literally no way of stopping this team. The only way to compete is to keep pace on offense.
Chiefs Betting Form
QB Patrick Mahomes has the KC offense humming along nicely once again. What’s even more impressive is that he’s done it against quality opponents. Now that the Chiefs have added RB LeSean McCoy, this offense is just too balanced to come up with a game plan for. Head coach Andy Reid is so good at creating mismatches via motion and all sorts of formations that the opposing defensive coordinator has his head spinning all week – during the game, yikes! It’s even worse.
Even if the Colts are without Hilton and Mack. It’s still an offense that relies on a number of different pieces. The Chiefs’ defense has been a problem for years. However, what helps us with the total going over is their ability to get turnovers and even scores. If they continue on that path, the KC defense could set Mahomes up for short fields and possibly put some points of their own on the board.
Week 5 Betting Pick: Over 56
We’ve seen it for more than a full season and then some this year. Kansas City Chiefs games are going to produce points. We love the fact that Indy’s O-line can keep things moving efficiently in this game, to go along with the most potent offense in NFL history on the other side of the field. Let’s have some fun to end the Sunday schedule with a ton of points on the scoreboard.
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