As we get to the midway point of the NFL season, we’re starting to get a better feel for the players and teams. Each week presents a different matchup that could be profitable for us, taking advantage of something in the numbers that may not have been originally seen at first.
In this article, I will identify the best value in player props from Week 8 of the NFL season. The odds displayed are from Bet365 and William Hill.
This week, I will evaluate these matchups: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Minnesota Vikings, Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) vs. Indianapolis Colts, and Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Dallas Cowboys – all three QBs will be playing at home.
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Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Prop Bets Watch
Over 285.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-250)
Under 0.5 INTs (-220)
Four of the six QBs to face the Vikings this season have thrown for 300+ yards. Sunday’s opponent is one of the four; Rodgers went 32-for-44 for 364 yards and four TDs in the season opener. Luckily, he has WR Davante Adams in peak form. Last week, Adams went bananas on the Texans with 13 catches on 16 targets for 196 yards and a pair of TDs.
This game had the highest opening total (56) of Week 8. However, that number has come crashing down to 51.5 now, with both teams get a 2.2 decrease on their respective team totals. Even with that big downward shift, the Packers still have the third-highest team total on the Sunday slate behind only the Chiefs and Titans.
Rodgers has only been picked once by the Minnesota defense in his last seven meetings. Look for him to add onto that confusion and dissect the purple and gold. The Vikings have quite a bit of injuries in their secondary, making the task that much more difficult.
Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Prop Bets Watch
Under 23.5 Passing Completions (-120)
Under 273.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+110)
The Lions are one of the most frustrating teams to roster in fantasy or betting for the purpose of scoring points. We all know they have some of the most talented weapons in RBs D’Andre Swift/Adrian Peterson, WRs Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/Danny Amendola and TE TJ Hockenson. However, we’re not seeing it translate to points on the scoreboard.
Most troubling is the way Detroit runs its offense, running the ball around 52% of the time. Stafford only has 33+ attempts in half of his games this season, which is disappointing with all of those weapons. This has been a common theme for the Lions in recent years, not getting the most out of their prized QB. Not to mention, Detroit’s porous run defense will keep its own offense off the field for long stretches of time.
This week’s matchup against the Colts’ secondary is among the toughest in the NFL. In addition to ranking fourth in DVOA against the pass, Indy also ranks fifth in DVOA against the run. All in all, it’ll be a tough day for Stafford & Co. to move the ball – and they’ll be very slow in doing so.
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Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST | Watch: NBC Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Prop Bets Watch
Over 23.5 Passing Completions (+100)
Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-140)
You can make the argument that Philly has the most upside of any offensive unit this week. After all, this is one of the best matchups against Dallas, which ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in pass defense.
It’s also worth mentioning its defense ranks dead-last in yards allowed per carry and fourth worst in run defense DVOA. However, there’s no word on whether RB Miles Sanders will play or not; he missed last week’s game with a knee injury. If Sanders is out, we can expect Wentz to be the main source of offensive income for the Birds.
The Eagles would love to get Wentz going and finally get him feeling like he’s in peak form. With the rest of the division faltering, Philly is looking like a damn good favorite to walk away with the NFC title. They better start acting like it! A good performance against the Cowboys in primetime would go a long way for everyone’s confidence.
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