As we get to the midway point of the NFL season, we’re starting to get a better feel for the players and teams. Each week presents a different matchup that could be profitable for us, taking advantage of something in the numbers that may not have been originally seen at first.
In this article, I will identify the best value in player props from Week 8 of the NFL season. The odds displayed are from Bet365 and William Hill.
This week, I will evaluate these WR matchups: Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers) vs. Minnesota Vikings, Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) at Miami Dolphins, and Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Tennessee Titans.
Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Prop Bets Watch
Over 7.5 Receptions (+100)
Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Since I wrote up Aaron Rodgers in the QB section, it’s only right that I add his top aerial weapon. We may not be getting THE best value on Adams since he’s coming off a 13-catch, 196-yard, 2 TD performance last week. However, there’s really not a whole lot the Vikings will be able to do in terms of slowing him down.
Adams had a massive season opener against Minnesota, going nuclear for 14 catches on 17 targets with 156 yards and 2 trips to the end zone. In fact, he was the first of four WRs to go for 100+ yards against them and also the first of six to get at least 90 yards. When you add it all up, it’s no surprise the Vikings allow the fourth most yards per attempt this season.
A great matchup became even greater during the week as numerous members of the Vikings secondary will be either ailing or absent. Adams certainly has a great chance to make it four straight 100+ yard games against the purple and gold.
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Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Prop Bets Watch
Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Of the seven highest reception totals against the Dolphins this season, four (five, if you count Stefon Diggs – 27% snap rate in the slot) have been slot WRs. The reason for that is none other than Dolphins CB Nik Needham, who is the third most targeted CB in football.
Kupp hasn’t been his usually great self of late, but he still leads the Rams with 51 targets 417 yards through the first seven games.
Judging from the betting patterns in this game, it’s possible that LA could fall behind at some point. After all, this is a 1:00 p.m. EST game and the Rams did just play on Monday Night Football, giving them much less preparation than usual on a normal week. If that’s the case, that means more throwing opportunities for Jared Goff to find his favorite WR.
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Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Prop Bets Watch
Over 5.5 Receptions (+120)
Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The mighty mighty Titans have been amongst the worst teams in the NFL to allow production from slot WRs. So, naturally, it makes sense for us to go with Boyd, who runs 76% of his snaps from the slot.
One thing that’s important to note for this matchup is the big differential of failure and success in the Titans’ pass defense. While ranking first in explosive pass defense against WRs, they also rank fifth worst in success rate to WRs. Translation: you’re not going to beat them deep often, but you can do it with repetition.
No other QB in football had more pass attempts (293) entering Week 8. That has equated to big things for Boyd, who leads the Bengals in receptions (48), targets (61) and yards (517). In a game that Cincy could certainly be trailing early and often, it would behoove Burrow to find Boyd quite a bit to keep pace.
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