The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns will put a lid on Week 14 of the NFL season for this edition of Monday Night Football. Back in Week 1, the Ravens put an absolute thumping on the Browns, winning by the score of 38-6. Things have changed a lot since then, as Cleveland sits at 9-3 while Baltimore is at 7-5.
As for the important numbers, the Ravens are three-point favorites (-3) and have -170 odds on the moneyline to win outright; the Browns have +150 moneyline odds. In addition, the total has been set at 45.5 points.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market from the Browns-Ravens matchup. The odds in this article are from William Hill Sports – Use the promo code TS500 for a 100% first-time sign-up deposit bonus of up to $500.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) at Cleveland Browns
Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+155)
Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Since Ravens OT Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending ankle injury, Jackson has at least 11 rushing attempts in all five of those games (13.2 per game). It did seem like the coaching staff wasn’t giving him as many running plays earlier in the season, in hopes of keeping his body healthy. However, with the playoffs still in questions, it’s an all-out usage of the playbook from here on out.
QB rushing yards vs. CLE this season:
Jackson: 45 yards
Carr: 41 yards
Burrow: 34 yards
Watson: 36 yards
In five career games against the Browns, Jackson has rushing totals of: 10, 90, 66, 103 and 45; the numbers above are also a good look for him in this matchup. Additionally, Jackson has 50 rushing yards in each of his last six games overall.
The next prop bet will give some insight as to why Jackson can go over the 1.5 TD passes…
Marquise Brown (Baltimore Ravens) at Cleveland Browns
Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Anytime TD (+175)
Hollywood Brown is starting to pick it up over the last two games, being targeted eight times in each and totaling it into 9 nine catches for 124 yards and 2 TDs. Browns No. 1 CB Denzel Ward will miss tonight’s game, giving Brown a huge bump in optimism. Outside WRs are the ones that usually do well against Cleveland, considering this defense tends to clog up the middle of the field.
Cleveland ranks 23rd in explosive pass play defense, meaning that Brown can certainly get behind the defense quite a bit tonight.
The TD score for Brown would be the cherry on top, especially for fantast owners. His +175 odds to reach paydirt aren’t too slanted in either director. I mean, who doesn’t love plus-money situations?
Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-115)
If you couldn’t tell, I think the Ravens are going to win the game outright and cover the three-point spread. If that is the case, the Browns will be playing from behind and need Mayfield to get them back in it by throwing the football.
From the get-go, I’m not exactly thrilled about Cleveland’s prospects of running the football against Baltimore, which ranks 4th in run defense DVOA. Inevitably, this creates another path of success for Mayfield to go over the 215.5-yard mark.
In the games that haven’t looked like a Hollywood end-of-the-world thriller (Browns played three straight from Nov. 1-Nov.22), Mayfield has actually performed quite well. In the last three games like that, he has passed for at least 258 yards in each of them with a total 11 TD-1 INT ratio. It’s also worth noting that Mayfield hasn’t thrown an INT over his last five games overall.
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