The Week 5 slate gets kicked off with a matchup of 3-1 teams on Thursday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears. As of now, the Bucs have been installed at 4.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 43.5 points. Usually, it is surprising when a road team is favored on a short week but there’s no doubt that Tampa Bay is the better team here.
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On Thursday, the Bucs will look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Bears will look to avenge last week’s loss – their only one of the season. It is worth noting that the Bucs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, and at least 31 in two of those three.
For this Thursday Night Football props article, the odds are brought to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Total: 43.5 points
| TB | Spread: -3.5 | Moneyline: -190 |
| CHI | Spread: +3.5 | Moneyline: +160 |
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David Montgomery – Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112) | DraftKings Sportsbook
Running the football against the Bucs doesn’t usually come with much success. In fact, they are ranked second in DVOA run defense and allow the second fewest yards per carry in the NFL. Montgomery’s 49.5 rushing-yards prop doesn’t inspire much hope against the Bucs either.
If the Bears are going to get the ball to their second-year stud RB, it’ll have to be through the air. In four games this season, the Bucs have allowed eight targets apiece to RBs Alvin Kamara and Mike Davis, six targets to Melvin Gordon and five to Christian McCaffrey. Even more encouraging is that five different RBs have eclipsed 25 receiving yards against the Bucs this season.
Encouraging snap counts from Week 4:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 7, 2020
99% – George Kittle
97% – MVS
96% – Damiere Byrd
92% – Jerick McKinnon
88% – Brandon Aiyuk
85% – David Montgomery
83% – Joe Mixon
77% – Dalton Schultz
76% – James Robinson
76% – Olamide Zaccheaus
73% – CEH
71% – Anthony Miller
64% – RoJo
Mike Evans – Away Team First TD Scorer (+350) | PointsBet Sportsbook
Through the Bucs’ first four games, Evans has a total of five TDs. It has been a weird season otherwise for him, having two games of 100+ yards and two with exactly two (TWO!) receiving yards. Somehow, in those two games with exactly two yards, Evans managed to find paydirt a total of three times in those games.
Tom Brady —> Mike Evans TD! #TB12 #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/DxGlWG2iz6
— TB12 (@TomBradyEgo) October 4, 2020
All in all, I have a lot more confidence in Evans to score a TD than to have a big statistical game. While this is a decent matchup for him, like other perimeter WRs had, there’s a chance that the Bears could put most of the secondary’s scheme against him. Tom Brady will spread the ball around, but he’s made sure to find his No. 1 WR when it matters most.
The likely absence of Chris Godwin only increases Evans’ chances at a TD as well.
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Cam Brate TD + Bucs Win (+500) | DraftKings Sportsbook
We all know much Brady loves his tight ends, and one in particular should be relied on a lot more than usual. Brate is shaping up to have a nice role in this offense now O.J. Howard (Achilles) going down for the season and Godwin will probably miss this week too. Not to mention, almost every single Bucs WR is listed on this week’s injury report, although most of them should play.
Cam Brate, who will now have a bigger role, makes a good point: He's got a leg up on most of his teammates in this short week because he's seen very limited snaps and is totally fresh.
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) October 6, 2020
Brate has done much yet this season, but his time is coming. Last week against the Chargers, he had his first catch and scored his first TD of the season. Since 2016, Brate has posted respectable numbers for the Bucs and the guys in the locker room are familiar with his work.
Through four games this season, the Bears have allowed three TDs to the TE position.
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