The Week 4 slate comes to a close on Monday night as the Atlanta Falcons fly in for a meeting with the Green Bay Packers. This one could very well be a one-sided affair, as the Packers are seven-point favorites with the game total sitting at 57.
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Aaron Jones – Over 4.5 Receptions (-114)
This was already a smash spot for Jones, as are all RBs against the Falcons. However, now that WR Davante Adams has been ruled out, things are looking even better. Atlanta loves to play an umbrella type of defense that essentially funnels short passes, mainly to RBs coming out of the backfield. Jones has already been targeted a total of 18 times, so this is just a natural look for QB Aaron Rodgers. In addition to Adams, fellow WR Allen Lazard will also miss tonight’s game. Everything here is shaping up for Jones to have a massive Monday night performance.
Early bird gets the worm
Last night, I jumped on Aaron Jones prop bets o3.5 rec (+118)/27.5 rec yards (-110) on FD — This morning, those numbers jumped all the way up to 4.5 rec (-114)/o38.5 rec yards (-110). Should still be alright. pic.twitter.com/yGzFHXBZRV
Hill scored his first TD of the season last week against the Chicago Bears, and the idea here is that he’ll start getting more carries going forward. In fact, his nine carries in Week 3 were more than his combined six in the first two games. Hill played in 34 percent of the Falcons’ snaps last week, giving us the indication that we’ll be seeing a lot more of him. Now, with all of the injuries to the Packers, this could wind up being a closer game – thus, lending some more optimism of Hill getting into the end zone.
Aaron Rodgers – Over 0.5 Interceptions (+230)
I’m well aware that Rodgers is one of the least-picked QBs in football, but we’ve got some interesting circumstances tonight. I feel like this +230 number is built in without accounting for the absence of Rodgers’ top two WRs – Adams and Lazard. There will undoubtedly be some bouts of miscommunication in this scenario, so taking the +230 here is a bit of a calculated risk. I’m up for some of those on a Monday night!
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