The AFC Championship Game gives us a fantastic matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. There were no other teams in the NFL that had more total yards per game than these two- KC: 415.8/gm, BUF: 396.4 but the weather could rain on the parade of a potential shootout. Regardless, we should still see an exciting game.
More importantly, KC is still defending its Super Bowl title from last season.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market from the Bills-Chiefs matchup.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 24, 2021
6:40 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Weather: mid-40s, 40% chance of rain
The Chiefs have been installed as three-point favorites (-3) with -170 moneyline odds to win the game outright while the Bills have +150 odds to win outright. In addition, the total is currently set at 54 points.
Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills)
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
- Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Over 2.5 Receptions (-160)
- Over 63.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
I really hope the Bills saw the same thing I did in last week’s win against the Ravens. Singletary didn’t even record a touch until the second half, but his burst of energy out of the gate did give his team some reason to believe that a win was coming.
We all know that running the football is always good against KC; it kills the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. It’s just a matter of how much the Bills will commit to the running game.
Time and time again this season, Buffalo has gone to the pass. However, a change of pace could be excellent here and keep KC on its toes.
Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Buffalo Bills
Prop Bets Watch:
- Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
In the Week 6 matchup against the Chiefs, things weren’t so easy for Hill. The Bills allowed only one play of 22 yards and nothing more; this was employed by using a 2-deep safety set, not allowing Hill or any of the other talented KC receivers.
Hill does a little bit of everything for the Chiefs but I’m not loving his prospects this weekend. The added intrigue of Mahomes’ injury adds some skepticism onto whether the offense will be firing on all cylinders. I’m not willing to take the under on his receptions (5.5) mark just yet, but we can see how the weather winds up playing a part and then we can make a decision from there.